FXUS66 KSGX 111022
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 AM PST FRI DEC 11 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF FAST MOVING STORMS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST NEXT WEEK
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR CWA. BASED ON UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...QPF
SHOULD BE MOSTLY BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ALTHOUGH
SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...
BETWEEN A THIRD AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 6500 FEET.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MOST ACTIVITY FROM THIS
SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL.
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SHOWING UP OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM. QPF OVER THE AREA
SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER INCH. SNOW LEVEL
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6500 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.
A THIRD AND STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS THIRD SYSTEM COULD BRING BETWEEN A
HALF AND AN INCH TO THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS AND BETWEEN AND INCH
AND AN INCH AND A HALF TO THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. THE SNOW LEVEL
SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 5500 FEET WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE THIRD SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD BRING
CLEARING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK TO MORE SEASONAL NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
111030Z...A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BRING
BKN-OVC SKIES...CLOUD BASES 3000-5000 FT MSL MERGING WITH HIGHER
BKN-OVC LAYERS TO NEAR 15000 FT MSL...AND SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITIES
LOCALLY 5SM. HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED. MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD END
BY 16Z LEAVING SCT-BKN AFTERNOON SKIES...EXCEPT BKN-OVC NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN. SMALL
&&
.MARINE...
A LONG PERIOD...5-7 FT W-NW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES
TODAY WITH SURF 4 TO 7 FEET AND SETS UP TO 9 FEET. SURF AND
SWELLS WILL LOWER WITH MAXIMUM SURF SETS NEAR 7 FEET AND MAXIMUM
SWELLS TO AROUND 5 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SEE LAXCFWSGX.
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE LAXESFSGX.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HORTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL
