FXUS62 KTBW 041816
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
116 PM EST FRI DEC 4 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FL
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
LINE...WITH OVER-RUNNING RAINS CONTINUING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE NE INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. WILL HAVE
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE WARM SECTOR THAT
COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AND ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK
AREA FROM AROUND THE MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY SOUTH. SHOULD START TO SEE
SOME CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AS THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE IN AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH
FOR TONIGHT. SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 70S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTH. SUNDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S
SOUTH. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW AS HAVE RECEIVED
PLENTY OF MODERATE RAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EXPECT RAINS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...THROUGH THE PERIOD THE FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE WEST WITH
CONSIDERABLE FLOW...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL PUSH
WEATHER SYSTEMS RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PRODUCE AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT. BY LATE MONDAY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS PUSHING INTO NORTH FLORIDA INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PUSHING OVER
NORTH FLORIDA. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN. ON FRIDAY THAT FRONT
PUSHES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH PRECIPITATION LINGERING IN THE
VICINITY. DURING THIS TIME FRAME CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND FAST
MOVING AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH
PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES IN BETWEEN. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDINESS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CIGS AND VSBY CONTINUES AT ALL LOCATIONS TODAY
WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TSRA
EXPECTED. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF CLEARING WILL OCCUR FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF TIME. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LATER TODAY ALSO.EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO SCA CONDITIONS
EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED FOR ABOUT 12-18 HOURS AND THEN QUICKLY SUBSIDE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WILL RAISE A SCA FOR THE WATERS
EXCEPT FOR TAMPA BAY FOR SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WEAK PRESSURES REMAINING OVER
THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RAINS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ATTM DO NOT EXPECT ANY LOW
HUMIDITY ISSUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 57 67 45 68 / 90 60 5 5
FMY 65 73 49 74 / 80 70 5 5
GIF 59 66 44 70 / 90 70 5 5
SRQ 61 68 46 70 / 90 70 5 5
BKV 53 64 37 67 / 90 50 5 5
SPG 59 67 51 68 / 90 60 5 5
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-
HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-
SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT
20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/COLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...03/PAXTON
