FXUS63 KABR 021947
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
147 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER NORTH
DAKOTA...HEADING SOUTH TOWARD THIS CWA. UPSTREAM RADAR DISPLAYS
INDICATE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE HEADING THIS WAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES CUMULUS-TYPE CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS
EARLY DECEMBER INSOLATION OVER-TURNS THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH INTO THIS AREA TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WAITING IN THE WINGS TO
WORK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MENTION
CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HELD ONTO THE
FLURRIES MENTION ON FRIDAY...BUT SHIFTED THE AREAL COVERAGE OVER
TO JUST THE EASTERN THIRD OF FORECAST ZONES. OTHERWISE...THE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS LOOK TO BE DRY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NOAM SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OVER THIS
AREA.

THE COLD SNAP WILL CONTINUE...AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL CAA
CONTINUES TO COOL THINGS DOWN. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLY A LITTLE BIT OF LOW LEVEL WAA
RETURNING TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN COLD WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH
DAKOTA BEING AFFECTED BY THIS. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND WILL SEE HOW MODELS
HANDLE THIS WAVE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...BY TUESDAY
ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ONE AS
OF RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO ALSO BE TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
WHICH WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM 00Z TUES THROUGH 00Z WED. WILL STICK WITH
THIS FOR NOW BUT IF MODELS MAINTAIN THEIR RECENT TREND OF KEEPING
STORM SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THESE POPS WILL BE ABLE TO BE
REMOVED.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR AND LOW END VFR CIGS FROM 2000 TO 6000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTER DARK...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN AND EXPAND
IN AREAL COVERAGE. CIGS COULD APPROACH 1000FT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
-SHSN ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER
CHANCES OCCURRING OVERNIGHT. VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL TO AROUND
2SM WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHSN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN