FXUS62 KTBW 120735
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
235 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A NOW-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE CAROLINAS AND A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IS NOTED IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS THAT
ONLY MADE IT INTO THE 50S OR LOWER 60S YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON...NEAR 80 FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND LOWER 70S UP NORTH
WHERE THEY WILL SEE THE FRONT PASS THROUGH A LITTLE LATER IN THE
DAY. HAVE KEPT THE 5O-60% POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AND MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY PROVIDE SOME BETTER LIFT
OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS
RATHER WEAK...SO WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER TODAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA TONIGHT AND AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER IT...A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA AND
NORTHERN FL...AND WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
THIS MEANS CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FOR US ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES MEAN LOWER CHANCES OF
RAIN. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO
THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
GFSX HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY TO A SLOWER/WEAKER FROPA ON THE
WED/THU TIME FRAME WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS. BUT
SINCE THESE FLUCTUATIONS ARE NOTHING NEW ON LONG TERM GFS...WILL
ONLY INTRODUCE SMALL INCREASES IN TEMPS BY ONE OR TWO DEGREES FOR
NOW AND RAMP THEM UP LATER ON IF THAT TREND HOLDS.
EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A MID ATL RIDGE STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION. THEN A
DEEPENING TROUGH SYSTEM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AREA SENDS A SFC FRONT
INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE RIDGE IS THEN PUSHED TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA ARRIVING IN THE WED/THU
TIMEFRAME. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUE AND WED AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF...AND WITH THE FROPA.
A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BELOW NORMALS FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VCSH REMAIN AROUND TPA...PIE AND SRQ ALONG WITH PERIODS OF CLOUD
DECKS AROUND 4000 FEET UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. THEN CIGS DROP
TO AROUND 3000 FEET AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THEN
THE BKN DECKS GRADUALLY BECOME SCATTERED BY THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE JUST STARTED TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS IN
THE LAST OBSERVATION OR TWO...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEAR THE
COAST WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4AM FOR THE
NEARSHORE/BAY WATERS. LOOKS LIKE 15-20KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID MORNING HOWEVER...SO WILL LEAVE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE IN.
WINDS OFFSHORE LOOK TO SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING AS WELL AND WILL
LEAVE 10AM EXPIRATION ON ADVISORY IN PLACE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS OR LESS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EASTERN
GULF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 67 83 67 / 50 30 20 10
FMY 82 67 86 67 / 50 20 20 10
GIF 78 66 84 64 / 50 30 20 10
SRQ 79 67 83 65 / 50 30 20 10
BKV 78 64 83 58 / 60 30 20 10
SPG 76 68 82 67 / 50 30 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT
20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TAMPA
BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...23/MCNATT
LONG TERM/AVIATION...22/REYNES
