FXUS63 KABR 041710
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1110 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

.UPDATE...
WITH ONLY THIN SNOW COVER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AND AMPLE
SUN FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AND SUBLIMATION/MELTING. FROM THE JAMES
VALLEY EAST...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT WARMING
SOMEWHAT. FURTHER EAST...MAINLY FOR THE COTEAU AND RED RIVER/BIG
STONE VALLEYS...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL FLURRY ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGE TO
FORECASTED HIGHS.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
TODAY...PROVIDING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. MOISTURE IS LACKING IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SO ONLY EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE WESTERN CWA UNDERGOES WEAK WAA VIA
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS AT H925 WARMING A
COUPLE DEGREES.

SURFACE AND H925 WINDS DIE OFF TONIGHT...AND ALONG WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON SATURDAY A FEW
DEGREES...OR CLOSER TO ADJMAV GUIDANCE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN IN THE WEST APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A H7 TROF MOVES THROUGH. MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT...BUT
LEAVE THE SCHC POPS AS IS FOR NOW. WILL ALSO LEAVE THE SCHC POPS
GOING ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK CAA AND STEEP LOW LEVEL RATES RESULTING
IN THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE DEEP UPPER TROF AND SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE
NW CONUS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.
WHILE ALL MODELS DEPICT THE SCENARIO THE ECMWF IS NOTICEABLY
FASTER AND DEEPER THAN THE GFS BY MID WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIP
SHOULD STAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIERS OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ONE TO WATCH AS IT EVOLVES. IF IT FOLLOWS
THE PATTERN OF OTHER SYSTEMS THIS SEASON IT MAY TRACK TOO FAR
SOUTH TO GIVE US MUCH OF ANYTHING. FOR NOW HAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE GRIDS.

UNLESS THE TRACK OF THE MAIN LOW CHANGES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER VARIABLE WITH LARGE AREAS OF MVFR MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
EAST. THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT. BY THIS EVENING
EXPECT AL LOCATIONS TO BE VFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN