FXUS63 KDDC 252143
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
343 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WINDS AGAIN SATURDAY AND TEMPS INTO
SUNDAY.
UPPER LOW AND VORT LOBE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND MERGE WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY MORNING. THIS WILL SEND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ON THE BREEZY SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. FOR SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE AS VORT LOBES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUE WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. WINDS
MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN IN THE NORTH AND EAST. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY LOOK A BIT WARMER WITH MID TO UPPER 20S AS 850MB TEMPS WARM
INTO TO AROUND -9C. THEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE UPPER
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST AND THE STRONG WINDS
DECREASE. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOWEVER WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WILL GO WITH
COOLER NAM GUIDANCE WITH MORE CLOUDS. WILL LET CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRE ON TIME.
DAYS 3-7...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER BAJA BY MONDAY AND THEN APPROACH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT WARMUP INTO THE 40S
ON MONDAY, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND THERE COULD EVEN
BE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PLAINS SO LARGE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP ARE NOT EXPECTED. IN FACT THE ECMWF SHOWS THE SYSTEM EJECTING
IN PIECES. AFTER TUESDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ECMWF
AMPLIFIES A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS
AND ACCOMPANYING ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD BRING A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BY LATE NEXT WEEK. NO
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
&&
AVIATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
BETWEEN 22 AND 02Z. A FEW FLURRIES SHOULD PERSIST ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CIGS FROM 4000-2500 FT. CIGS AT HAYS COULD DROP TO 1500FT
AFTER 06Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 16 26 15 31 / 20 20 10 0
GCK 15 25 14 30 / 20 20 10 0
EHA 16 30 17 32 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 16 30 16 33 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 13 24 13 27 / 20 20 10 10
P28 16 28 17 32 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
&&
$$
FN06/24
