FXUS63 KFGF 052009
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
209 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE CLOUDS TRENDS AND
TEMPS AND THEN WHETHER IT IS WORTH MENTIONING ANY FLURRIES. MODELS
SEEM TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO
FORECAST CONTINUITY TODAY WHICH FAVORS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

TONIGHT...STARTING OFF...CLOUD TRENDS ARE ALREADY TRICKY. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT IT IS HARD TO PICK OUT THE LOW THIN CLOUDS
DUE TO THE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND. KHCO HAS INDICATED SOME LOWER
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A FEW FLURRIES. SOME CUMULUS HAS POPPED UP
AROUND KBDE WHICH IS ALSO REPORTING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. COULD
EASILY GO SUNNY WITH PERIODIC FLURRIES TODAY IT IS SO VARIABLE.
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY MOVING SOUTH/
SW OUT OF SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT. SATELLITE DOES NOT LOOK THAT
IMPRESSIVE THOUGH...SO NOT SURE IT WILL BECOME CLOUDY FOR ALL
AREAS TONIGHT. WITH SNOW COVER AND FAIRLY LIGHT SFC WINDS...WHAT
HAPPENS CLOUDWISE MAKES A HUGE DIFFERENCE TONIGHT. WILL STICK WITH
THE IDEA OF BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY AGAIN IN THE NORTH TONIGHT...
BUT WILL BRIEF EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH WHAT HAPPENS THRU THE EARLY
EVENING CLOUDWISE. IF THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS ARE THIN OR DO NOT HOLD
TOGETHER...TEMPS COULD FALL TO FORECAST MINS IN THE EVENING AND
WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING ON
KEEPING ANY FLURRIES LINGERING TONIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE THEM OUT
AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADD IF NEED BE.

SUN-TUE...WEAK TROUGHINESS HOLDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
DURATION WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOR THE MOST PART THE WINDS LOOK TO STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER. FLURRIES AGAIN COULD OCCUR WITH ALMOST
ANY DECENT CLOUD BAND...BUT HARD TO FIGURE OUT WHEN THE BEST
CHANCES WOULD BE SO AGAIN WILL LEAVE THEM OUT. TEMPS LOOK TO STAY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE TODAY FOR HIGHS/LOWS...ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE A BIT MORE COOLING. WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
SNOW IN THE SOUTH AS THE TUE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES
NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM [WED-SAT]...
IT WILL BE A COLD PERIOD WITH THE MAIN COLD WEATHER EVENT COMING IN 
JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD AS A 1050 MB HIGH COMES DOWN FROM YUKON INTO 
ALBERTA AND MONTANA EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THUS THE MAIN ISSUE IS 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND HOW COLD TO GO.  CLOUDS ALWAYS 
PRESENT AN ISSUE FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS BUT DAYTIME HIGHS TOO WILL 
STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH AS JUST ENOUGH SNOWCOVER OVER THE FCST AREA TO 
INHIBIT MUCH WARMING FROM THE WEAK SUN.  HPC TEMPS SEEMED TOO WARM 
CONSIDERING 850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -18 TO -22C RANGE THIS 
PERIOD...SO UPON COLLABORATION AMONG NEIGHBORING OFFICES DECIDED TO 
DROP HPC TEMP GUIDANCE 5 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A 
START.  THIS WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS FROM ZERO 
TO BELOW SOUTH TO 10 TO 15 BELOW FAR NORTH.  THIS IS IN LINE TOO 
WITH ENVIRONMENT CANADA FCST FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA FOR THE THU-FRI 
TIME PERIOD.  WENT DRY THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW 
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR.  

&&

.AVIATION...
MODELS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF HELP...AS IT INSISTS LOWER STRATOCU IN THE 
1000-1500 RANGE WILL PERSIST OR MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA ON A 
WIDESPREAD BASIS.  SATELLITE SHOWS PRETTY CLEAR NORTHERN HALF WITH 
HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH PATCHY THIN BROKEN STRATOCU STILL. 
UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKY AS WELL.  THUS FEEL 
MODELS TOO CLOUDY AND WILL BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC.  

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

GODON/RIDDLE