FXUS63 KGLD 052317
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
417 PM MST SAT DEC 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...
255 PM MST SAT DEC 5 2009

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE NEXT COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS DUE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

THE INITIAL SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOLLOWING SUNSET TONIGHT IN COMBINATION
WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. WITH MINIMAL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EXPECT ONLY AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER AND INTO FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD SEE AN INCH OR LESS MAINLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW INCREASE DURING LATE MONDAY
WITH SNOW LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A DEEPER AND STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY 3-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 SHOULD RECEIVE 2-3 INCHES. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
GFS AND NAM ALONG WITH THE MEETING OF HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA OCCURRING
LATE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY 4TH PERIOD
HIGHLIGHTS TO COVER THE SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLE BLOWING SNOW. AS
THIS SYSTEM IS BETTER SAMPLED AS IT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN
U.S....EXPECT MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINING IF A HIGHLIGHT IS
NEEDED FOR THIS SECOND STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL
FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK WILL REINFORCE THE COOL TEMPERATURES MID-
WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

LOCKHART
&&

.AVIATION...
417 PM MST SAT DEC 5 2009

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AT BOTH KGLD 
AND KMCK WHILE A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. ON SUNDAY SOUTHWEST 
FLOW WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME 
LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES MAINLY DURING THE 
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE STARTS TO 
EXIT CIGS WILL IMPROVE BUT STILL REMAIN MVFR AT KGLD WHILE LIGHT 
SNOW LINGERS AT KMCK. 

FS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

$$