FXUS64 KLZK 281719
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1119 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
.AVIATION...
SRLY SFC FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD AT MOST
SITES. SCT TO BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE NWD THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP/MOVE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE
NORTH FROM THE GULF. EXPECT MVFR CIGS BY MID MORNING SUN AT ALL
SITES...AND WILL ALSO MENTION VCSH AND PROB30 FOR -RA ACROSS NRN
SITES AS THE FRONT PUSHES SE INTO NWRN AR BY NOON TOMORROW. WILL
KEEP MENTION OF -RA OUT OF OTHER SITES FOR NOW AS FRONT AND PRECIP
WILL NOT AFFECT THOSE AREAS UNTIL LATER SUN AFTERNOON.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF MIXING
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. A FEW STATIONS
REPORTING CALM WINDS FELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER
WITH A DRY AIRMASS TO THE NORTH AND LOWERED DEW PTS...WOULD NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY...EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST TRAILING
PRECIPITATION AND PRECIP LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
CWA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT UP TO
THIS POINT.
CHILLY TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FROPA...WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S MONDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
THE CLOSED UPR LOW...CENTERED OVR CNTRL CA EARLY THIS MRNG...IS
PROGGED TO TRACK EWD ACRS SRN TX/NRN MX EARLY IN THE WEEK. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS...BUT DIFFER WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK/SPEED OF THE STORM SYS
ACRS THE REGION BY WED. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER AT
28/00Z REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW.
THE GFS RMNS FURTHER S WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYS...WITH RAIN
CHCS CONFINED TO MAINLY SERN AR ON WED. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF TAKES
THE UPR SYS ACRS AR WED AND WED NGT...WITH PRECIP AFFECTED MOST OF
THE FA. OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY SIG CHGS TO THE GOING FCST WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT THE MODELS WL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
COMING DAYS. COOLER AND DRIER CONDS WL PREVAIL LATER IN THE PD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 65 47 57 38 / 10 30 70 80
CAMDEN AR 68 50 65 47 / 10 30 70 80
HARRISON AR 67 48 54 34 / 10 30 50 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 66 50 62 43 / 10 30 70 80
LITTLE ROCK AR 66 49 61 41 / 10 30 70 80
MONTICELLO AR 67 49 64 47 / 10 30 70 80
MOUNT IDA AR 66 51 61 42 / 10 30 70 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 67 47 55 35 / 10 30 50 60
NEWPORT AR 65 48 58 40 / 10 30 70 80
PINE BLUFF AR 67 49 63 45 / 10 30 70 80
RUSSELLVILLE AR 66 49 58 38 / 10 30 60 70
SEARCY AR 65 48 59 40 / 10 30 70 80
STUTTGART AR 66 49 61 43 / 10 30 70 80
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...62
