FXUS61 KBUF 102025
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
325 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED MORE THAN HALF OF THE NATION
WAS CONTINUING TO WITHDRAW NORTHEAST FROM QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON AND
IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA IN TERMS OF
WINDS SPEEDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY THOUGH
THE COLD WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BANDS OF
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE AREAS THAT
WILL BE MOST FAVORED WILL BE THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST
SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INTENSE LAKE SNOWS WILL BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD.
FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT...WITH DEEP/MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...EXPECT AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION. THIS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THIS ARE
MAY OCCASIONALLY SEE BATCHES OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH AS AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF GEORGIAN BAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
A LARGE PLUME OF HEAVY LAKE SNOWS CONTINUES RIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
ERIE COUNTY INCLUDING THE BUFFALO METRO AREA...WITH DEEP INLAND
PENETRATION ALL THE WAY THROUGH GENESEE COUNTY TO ROCHESTER. EXPECT
THIS BAND TO SETTLE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NEARBY BUFFALO
SOUTH TOWNS...BUT ALSO SPREADING OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY AS WELL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INLAND TOWARDS ROCHESTER AND THE WESTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PART OF THE BAND TO
SETTLE SOUTH OF THE ROCHESTER METRO AREA AFTER 5 PM.
BY LATER THIS EVENING THE BAND SHOULD SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MORE
DISTANT SOUTH TOWNS EAST INTO WYOMING COUNTY AS A 700MB SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION AT AROUND 00Z AND VEERS THE WINDS MORE
WESTERLY. FINALLY OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE BAND TO SETTLE INTO THE
MORE TRADITIONAL SKI COUNTRY SNOWBELT...FOCUSING ON THE BOSTON HILLS
EAST TO WYOMING COUNTY AND ALSO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA
AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY EXPECT THE LAKE SNOWS
TO REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD DRIFT IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PULL THE BAND MORE INTO
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY AND OUT OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE MOST INTENSE
PORTION OF THIS BAND THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME WEAKENING
TO AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR ON FRIDAY. STORM TOTALS WILL BE AROUND A
FOOT IN THE BUFFALO SOUTH TOWNS...WITH 6-8 INCHES THROUGH THE HEART
OF THE METRO AREA. IN THE MORE DISTANT SOUTH TOWNS EXPECT 1-2 FEET
FROM HAMBURG TO EAST AURORA...WITH 2-3 FEET IN THE BOSTON HILLS.
EXPECT 1-2 FEET IN THE NORTHERN REACHES OF CHAU/CATT COUNTIES.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
A RATHER BROAD AREA OF HEAVY LAKE SNOWS CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL
TUG HILL REGION. THIS BAND MAY EDGE SLIGHTLY NORTH CLOSER TO THE
WATERTOWN AND HARRISVILLE AREAS AGAIN FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. AFTER THAT...EXPECT THE BAND TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TUG HILL REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATER FRIDAY
MORNING THE BAND MAY SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF OSWEGO
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TUG...BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE TUG BY LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES TO BE COMMON IN THIS BAND WITH
2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE ON THE TUG HILL. HAVE INCREASED ACCUMS ON THE
TUG FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH UP TO 2 FEET TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER 2 FEET ON FRIDAY ON THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE TUG. EXPECT
THE HARDEST HIT AREAS TO BE FROM REDFIELD TO NORTH OSCEOLA AND
MONTAGUE. STORM TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 4 FEET ON THE TUG...
WITH 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
OSWEGO...SOUTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON...AND MUCH OF LEWIS COUNTY.
WINDS...
A WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS TODAY
HAVE BEEN IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT GUSTS TO CONTINUE IN THIS
RANGE MUCH OF TONIGHT...AND MODELS SUGGEST GUSTS MAY ACTUALLY PICK
UP A LITTLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. IT WILL STILL BE
WINDY FRIDAY...BUT WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH GUSTS IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFFECTS OF THE VERY COLD AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY'S
STORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE NO MORE SNOW BUT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES OFF LAKE ERIE AND
ACROSS THE TUG HILL AREA AND MUCH OF OSWEGO COUNTY OFF LAKE
ONTARIO.
WE FINALLY EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY AS THE FLOW WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LAKE
ERIE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY END IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE LAKE ONTARIO
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET BUT COLD AS
THE HIGH CRESTS OVER US.
BY SUNDAY WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN BUT WITH IT WILL COME ENOUGH
LIFT TO HAVE CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR
SNOW SO WE WILL CARRY EITHER OR AT THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE
WILL END BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER BENIGN WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTING OVER US MONDAY MORNING. WE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND
HIGHS OVER 40 IN MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY.
A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS THEN EXPECTED TO CARVE
OUT AN UPPER AIR TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO SWING INTO QUEBEC
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE LOWER REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. 850 MB AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL.
AT THIS POINT WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BUT THAT WILL BE REFINED IN LATER FORECASTS.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SYSTEM WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PLUNGE TO
MINUS 16 TO MINUS 20C. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FAVOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES. WE WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THOSE
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
BY THURSDAY THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WE WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE NO BETTER THAN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE INTENSE BAND OFF LAKE ERIE...SITUATED BETWEEN KBUF AND HAMBURG
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HOLD STEADY FOR A FEW HOURS
THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH TOWNS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS THE STEERING WINDS VEER MORE TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...IMPACTING KJHW. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE
MAIN SNOW BAND...BUT AREAS TO THE NORTH...INCLUDING KIAG AND
KROC...WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF KART...BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THE MAIN SNOW BAND WILL STILL
KEEP IFR CONDITIONS AT KART UNTIL ABOUT 06Z. TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT CONDITIONS VCNTY KART TO IMPROVE TO
VFR AS THE SNOW SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS IN THE 20 TO
30 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VARIABLE CONDITIONS...LARGELY VFR...BUT IFR/LIFR IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CHANCE -RW/-SW.
&&
.MARINE...
ALL WARNINGS ARE BACK TO GALES AT THIS TIME. THE DEEP LOW
WITHDRAWING FROM QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG ENOUGH WINDS
TO PRODUCE ROUGH CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED AT LEAST INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LAKE ERIE WATER LEVELS HAVE FALLEN TO BELOW 7 FEET AND CONTINUE TO
DROP EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME SLOSHING TODAY WITH
WINDS REMAINING STRONG...CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE 8 FOOT
FLOOD STAGE WILL NOT BE REACHED...SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THAT SAID...THE LAKE WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE ITS 3 FOOT
AVERAGE...WITH SOME HIGH WAVES STILL PRODUCING SOME SPLASH OVER ALONG
WATERFRONT ROADS TODAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-
019>021-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-
019-020-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ006>008.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ010-011.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ013.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042>045-
062>065.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-
024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SAGE
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SAGE
LONG TERM...SAGE
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...SAGE
