FXUS64 KMEG 221124
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
524 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING CAN BE FOUND OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN SOME SPOTS.
WILL KEEP FREEZING FOG ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 8 AM AS SCHEDULED.
WITH SURFACE HIGH NOW EAST OF THE REGION...SOUTH WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BRING MILDER AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. BY TONIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME
RAIN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BY
WEDNESDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND MOVE EAST. AS A RESULT...MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND WILL PRODUCE MORE RAIN FOR OUR AREA WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BY THURSDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND BEGINS TO GET WRAPPED UP. THIS WILL MEAN
MORE RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND SO
DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH ON CHRISTMAS EVE SO IT WILL
BE WET BUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. CHRISTMAS
DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY AND SOMEWHAT PLEASANT AS DRY SLOT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AND COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. BY MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A LITTLE
BIT BELOW NORMAL.
ARS
&&
AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
FREEZING FOG WILL KEEP VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR KJBR THROUGH 14Z...WITH
TEMPORARY CONDITIONS OF LIFR AT KMKL. FOG NOT A PROBLEM THIS
MORNING AT KMEM OR KTUP. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR AT ALL
LOCATIONS AFTER 15Z...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 8-12 KNOTS. RAIN WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 00Z ACROSS ARKANSAS SPREADING NORTHEAST TO
KJBR FIRST...AND KTUP LAST VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL
STEADILY COME DOWN FROM VFR...THROUGH MVRF AND IFR DURING SECOND
HALF OF TAF PERIOD. SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT KJBR MAY DECLINE TO
LIFR CIGS AFTER 06Z...AS BRUNT OF RAIN TRACKS THROUGH THAT REGION.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-18KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 59 49 60 53 / 10 60 90 90
MKL 58 46 57 51 / 10 40 80 80
JBR 54 46 56 50 / 10 70 90 90
TUP 60 46 58 50 / 0 30 70 80
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-
CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.
MO...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALCORN-
BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
YALOBUSHA.
TN...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-
WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
