FXUS62 KMFL 030831
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
331 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH A
SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS LINE COULD BEGIN TO
AFFECT SECTIONS OF GLADES...HENDRY AND MAYBE COLLIER COUNTY
BEFORE DAY BREAK TODAY AND SO WL INDICATE HIGHEST POPS TODAY FOR
THAT PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STILL WL EXPECT
SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. WHILE STRONG STORMS COULD STILL
AFFECT LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TODAY...LATEST GUIDANCE AND RADAR
OBS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
LAKE OKEE. THE COLD FRONT OVER ERN GULF OF MEX JUST WEST OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS UNDERGOING MAJOR SLOW DOWN AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE FRONT ACTUALLY
STALLING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND KEEPING SOUTH
FLORIDA UNDER A JUICY SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW
A SERIES OF WEAK TO MODERATE DISTURBANCES MOVING NEWD AROUND THE
BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND OVER THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE
PENINSULA RESULTING IN HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AND SO WL KEEP HIGH SCT TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MS VALLEY BY SAT MORNING AND
TO THE CAROLINAS BY SAT EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA AND CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA SAT EVENING WITH A
DRYING TREND STARTING LATE SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER, WL STILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD AS A SFC HIGH MOVES
RAPIDLY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A RETURN FLOW GETS
ESTABLISHED BRINGING PATCHES OF MOISTURE/SHOWERS TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL VALUES BUT WL QUICKLY
RECUPERATE AND MAY EVEN BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL AS
THE SFC FLOW TURNS NE/E BY MONDAY.

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (20 KTS) AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW AT LEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...MARINERS STILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION AS ANY
SHOWERS/STORM TODAY COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS
CAUSING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS SHOULD BECOME N-NE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND MOVE RAPIDLY NE. THIS LOW COULD GENERATE
A N/NE SWELL THAT COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF
SOUTH FLORIDA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASING THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  67  81  68 / 50 60 50 60 
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  70  83  71 / 40 40 40 50 
MIAMI            84  69  84  70 / 40 40 40 40 
NAPLES           80  66  79  67 / 50 60 60 60 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH
AVIATION...54/BNB