FXUS63 KMKX 102042
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
242 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL
EXPAND NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS PROTECTS US
FROM ANY PRECIP THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT ARE A BIT TRICKY.
WE ARE RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE AND WILL GET A COLD START TO THE
NIGHT. THERE IS A NARROW STRIP OF WAA CLOUDS UPSTREAM THAT IS
OVERDONE ON THE MODELS BUT DOES SHOW SIGNS OF EXPANDING A BIT.
THESE COULD ROLL IN AND LIMIT THE TEMP DROP. EITHER WAY...WILL STILL
TAKE OUT THE MACHETE ON THE MOS MINS FOR TONIGHT. SINCE WE ARE ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...OUR WINDS DON/T DECOUPLE AND
WE STILL GET SOME PRETTY COLD WIND CHILLS. WE GET NEAR OR JUST AT
WIND CHILL CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE LIMIT EXTENT BOTH IN COVERAGE AND
MINIMUM LEVELS...WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY ATTM.
AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...WE GET INTO A NICE RETURN FLOW
WITH WARMER AIR HEADING BACK IN FOR SATURDAY. AND BY WARMER WE/RE
TALKING TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 20S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 30S BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND.
.SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
NICE LOOKING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL HEAD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ISN/T A VERY STRONG
SYSTEM...MERELY A RIPPLE AT THIS TIME WITHIN THE FAST MID
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. I/M SURPRISED AT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
SHOWING UP ON THE ISENTROPIC CHARTS IN THE FAVORED H75
ZONE...ABOUT 3G/KG. FORTUNATELY...THE FORCING IS GENERALLY WEAK.
HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...BUT
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE HEADING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY SOON. COULD
GET A SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY NOON ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION ABOUT PRECIP TYPE AS THE NAM BRINGS IN AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER INTO OUR SOUTH HALF...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT COLDER. LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY THERE AND WOULD OPT FOR THE COLDER SOLUTION GIVEN
THE MASSIVE SNOWPACK OUT THERE. TROFING CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
WHICH COULD LINGER THE LIGHT PRECIP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIP
TYPE REMAINS A QUESTION MARK.
NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM
GENERALLY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN CONTROL THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKS CHILLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WARM
UP INDICATED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD INTO SRN AND CENTRAL
WI THIS EVENING. SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT PER
SATELLITE TRENDS FROM NE IA/SE MN. AT THIS POINT KEEPING CEILINGS IN
THE VFR CATEGORY PER CONSENSUS FROM MOS AND THE MAJORITY OF UPSTREAM
OBS.
&&
.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM ON FRIDAY.
BRISK AND GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER THE UNSTABLE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BTWN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL USA AND RELATIVELY LOW PRESSURE
OVER CANADA.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
