FXUS65 KABQ 261014
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
314 AM MST SAT DEC 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVES DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES...SHIFTING TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE EARLY TO
MID-WEEK PERIOD. ENORMOUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...PIVOTING AN ENTOURAGE OF DISTURBANCES AROUND
THE SYSTEM. SOME OF THIS ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH NRN NEW MEXICO
TODAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO MEAGER TO SUPPORT MUCH ON THE WAY
OF QPF. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW FLURRIES TRICKLE DOWN OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN...BUT OPTED TO REMOVE POPS DUE TO A LACK OF PCPN
UPSTREAM IN CO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN MIXING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
WRN/CENTRAL VALLEYS. THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY WEAK 850-700MB
COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH A DELAYED BREAKAGE OF THE INVERSION
WILL RESULT IN COLDER READINGS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCALES. FEEL
THE MET GUIDANCE IS LATCHING ONTO THIS CONCEPT BETTER THAN THE MAV
AND WILL GIVE IT THE NOD.
GREAT LAKES STORM WILL SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST ON SUNDAY TO FINALLY
LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS SUGGEST A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO BETWEEN A RIDGE IN
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO OUR SOUTH. MOISTURE IS
VERY MEAGER AND WILL DISCARD THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
NRN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10-20 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS AS COLD AIR IS TRAPPED IN THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.
CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR WRN/CENTRAL NM AS
POOR MIXING WILL PERSIST. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WILL SWING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A STRONGER
INVERSION ALOFT.
DISTURBANCE IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL IMPACT THE SWRN UNITED STATES
AND NRN MEXICO FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER ALL MODELS ARE
CONFIDENT THE FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS AN OPEN WAVE.
THE BRUNT OF THE DYNAMICS WILL IMPACT THE SRN SECTIONS AND POSSIBLY
THE ERN PLAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE PRIMARY DEVIATION IN THE
MODELS CONCERN THE AMOUNT OF QPF THAT COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION/DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT. TOO EARLY TO PREDICT ATTM...BUT
CENTERED THE HIGHER POPS IN THE SRN CWFA...GENERALLY USING A BLEND
OF THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
APPEARS MUDDLED WITHIN THE MODELS...LEADING TO VERY LOW FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE. DPORTER
&&
.AVIATION...
WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE VICINITY OF ANGEL FIRE...EAGLE NEST AND
CHAMA...WHERE A FEW PATCHES OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TOWARD DAY BREAK AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE
COLDEST DAY WILL BE TODAY...WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN POOR IN MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST...WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WINDOW OF FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION. WINDS
WILL BE CALMER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND THAN WAS FELT
YESTERDAY. DRY WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE SW
MOUNTAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS AS AN OPEN WAVE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE
REMAINING SOUTH OF I-40. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE
GLENWOOD...BOSQUE DEL APACHE AND ROSWELL AREAS...WHERE RAIN MAY MIX
WITH SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH MAYBE AN INCH OR
TWO ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ALSO ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN. AT THIS TIME THE NORTHEAST APPEARS LEAST FAVORED FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SOUTHERLY TRACKING TROUGH...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRACK OTHER PERTURBATIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MAY CROSS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 28 4 29 7 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 24 -10 28 -2 / 0 0 5 5
CUBA............................ 24 -3 27 -4 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 29 -1 31 0 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 27 -5 30 2 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 31 -1 33 2 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 30 5 35 9 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 48 18 49 21 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 24 -15 26 -13 / 5 0 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 27 3 29 5 / 0 0 5 0
PECOS........................... 26 4 30 5 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 25 -14 28 -11 / 5 0 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 21 -4 23 -2 / 5 0 5 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 23 -2 26 -1 / 0 0 5 5
TAOS............................ 27 -7 30 -4 / 0 0 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 30 3 34 9 / 5 0 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 25 1 29 7 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 27 6 31 11 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 31 11 33 16 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 32 13 33 19 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 33 6 34 14 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 33 8 34 15 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 34 7 35 14 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 32 9 34 15 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 38 14 38 17 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 27 7 29 11 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 29 11 32 14 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 26 7 30 11 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 33 14 35 17 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 41 17 43 22 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 37 20 39 19 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 28 4 28 7 / 0 0 5 0
RATON........................... 34 2 35 4 / 0 0 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 32 5 32 8 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 35 14 37 16 / 0 0 5 0
ROY............................. 35 12 34 14 / 0 0 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 38 9 39 11 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 36 12 38 14 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 35 10 38 12 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 37 15 40 18 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 38 15 40 16 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 38 11 39 14 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 41 19 43 21 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 43 16 47 20 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 41 19 45 20 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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