FXUS65 KABQ 112207
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
305 PM MST FRI DEC 11 2009
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...
.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES
AND TIMING. ONGOING FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS
NECESSARY. SATELLITE INDICATES SOME MID AND UPPER CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF NM. DECKS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE
EVENING HRS AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE
FOUR CORNERS. LIGHT SNOW ALREADY IN NRN AZ WILL START TO MIGRATE TO
THE CHUSKA MTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE NW MTS TONIGHT. IT
APPEARS DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY MEAGER.
THE NAM IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...BUT BASED ON PCPN OVER AZ...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS. NONETHELESS...BEST CHANCES FOR QPF
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE OR TWO INCHES...
FAVORING THE WRN SLOPES OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. OROGRAPHICS SHOULD
BE THE MAIN PLAYER WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH SAT MORNING...BEFORE
THE SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE ERN PLAINS
AS WLY SURFACE FLOW PERSISTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE ERN PLAINS TOMORROW OUTSIDE OF SNOW PACK MAINLY DUE TO
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING/DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SECOND WAVE WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH QPF CHANCES MAINLY RELEGATED TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH
THE SATURDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS DYNAMICS WILL BE MARGINAL ONCE AGAIN
BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHICS MAY SUPPORT A BIT
MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION. ANTICIPATING ONE TO MAYBE THREE INCHES NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER IN THE SRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. THE FINAL WAVE
WITHIN THE SERIES WILL ARRIVE IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY DAYBREAK
ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE BETTER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THERE IS
QUIET A DISCREPANCY ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. THE
NAM/ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND OFFERS A SLUG OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF THE DISTURBANCE...WHILE THE GFS40 IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
NATURE. CURRENTLY FEEL THE GFS IS TOO FAST AND SIDED CLOSER TO THE
OTHER SOLUTIONS. NONETHELESS...APPEARS HIGH END ADVISORY OR LOW END
WARNING SNOWS COULD ACCUMULATE IN THE SRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS IN NEIGHBORING AREAS. PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE
NRN/WRN HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL
ZONES. TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON SUNDAY.
MODELS LOWERED WIND SPEEDS BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
A POTENTIAL ADVISORY ISSUANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE
EAST SUN BEFORE A COLD FRONT OFFERS COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE.
THEREAFTER...A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IMPACTS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
THROUGH MID-WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES SUGGESTS A CLOSED LOW WILL INVADE
THE STATE ON FRIDAY BUT LACKS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY
QPF. DPORTER
&&
.AVIATION...
A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND BEYOND. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR MAINLY THE CHUSKA AND SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60. HOWEVER...CEILINGS
WILL LOWER AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS AT KGUP...KFMN AND POSSIBLY KLAM...KSKX AND KAXX THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT WILL RAPIDLY CROSS THE NW CORNER OF
THE STATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AS WELL
AS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
THE SAN JUANS COULD PICKUP A COUPLE OF INCHES NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER. WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY ALONG
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS.
A SHARPER TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...
THEN RESTRENGTHEN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES SUNDAY...PEAKING MID DAY
THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL FAVOR THE AREA FROM AROUND CLINES CORNERS TO
AROUND LAS VEGAS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO CROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY
AFFECTING THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS. A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULDN/T ACCUMULATE MUCH
SNOW...BUT THE CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION LOOKS GOOD...
ESPECIALLY FROM GALLUP TO FARMINGTON AND CUBA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. THE WEATHER WILL DRY OUT BY
TUESDAY AND A STUBBORN TEMPERATURE INVERSION SHOULD KEEP VENTILATION
POOR IN MANY LOCATIONS. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 19 40 27 43 / 20 30 30 50
DULCE........................... -5 36 18 36 / 30 40 40 50
CUBA............................ 12 39 20 39 / 30 20 30 50
GALLUP.......................... 15 41 26 42 / 10 20 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 16 39 20 42 / 5 10 20 20
GRANTS.......................... 13 42 22 45 / 5 10 10 20
QUEMADO......................... 18 43 21 47 / 5 10 5 10
GLENWOOD........................ 29 54 26 56 / 0 5 0 10
CHAMA........................... 0 31 13 31 / 40 50 40 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 17 39 18 41 / 20 20 10 30
PECOS........................... 20 41 22 43 / 5 5 10 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 7 36 12 38 / 5 10 20 30
RED RIVER....................... 12 28 13 33 / 5 5 20 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 14 33 14 36 / 0 5 10 20
TAOS............................ 4 39 14 41 / 5 10 20 30
ESPANOLA........................ 18 47 27 48 / 20 10 10 30
SANTA FE........................ 16 39 20 42 / 5 10 10 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 17 41 24 44 / 5 5 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 24 46 28 48 / 5 5 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 26 48 30 49 / 5 5 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 17 50 24 51 / 0 5 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 22 48 26 49 / 0 5 5 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 16 53 23 53 / 0 5 5 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 21 47 27 48 / 5 5 5 10
SOCORRO......................... 25 56 27 57 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 20 41 23 42 / 5 5 5 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 19 43 25 46 / 0 0 5 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 20 44 24 43 / 0 0 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 27 48 28 49 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 30 56 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 24 49 27 50 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 17 46 19 51 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 13 45 20 52 / 0 0 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 20 46 25 49 / 0 0 5 10
CLAYTON......................... 20 54 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 18 48 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 24 54 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 28 55 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 25 57 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 26 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 25 62 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 27 61 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 27 64 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 29 61 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 32 56 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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