FXUS65 KABQ 262054
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
154 PM MST THU NOV 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ITS THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NM WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SW FLOW FRI. STORM NOW
OFF THE W COAST WILL IMPACT THE STATE SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
RAIN...SNOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. WEAKER DISTURBANCES MAY AFFECT
NM LATER NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BRINGING FINE THANKSGIVING WEATHER TO NM.
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE FAR S. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE NOV WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
TONIGHT AND FRI AS THE STORM OFF THE W COAST MOVES ONSHORE FRI. HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE S WILL CREEP N TONIGHT THEN SHIFT E FRI AS MORE HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE W LATER IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD ON FRI...ESPECIALLY IN THE E WHERE THE
LEE SIDE TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED.
THE STORM WILL IMPACT NM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE STORM...BUT
NOT SO MUCH WITH THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS BRING IN RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE W AND NW ON SAT
WITH GOOD LIFT. THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP
IN NE AZ UNTIL LATER SAT NIGHT AND SUN. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NW ON SAT...WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS AND EURO.
MODELS IN AMAZINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT PLACING THE LOW CENTER OVER THE
NRN HALF OF BAJA CA AT 00Z MON...SUN EARLY EVE...THEN MOVE THE LOW
E ACROSS NRN OLD MEXICO MON AND INTO W TX TUE. MOST MODELS SHIFT
THE BEST PRECIPITATION TO THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE BY SUN...WITH
DRYING FROM N TO S ON MON INTO TUE. NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH
A VAST MAJORITY OF ITS PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR N SUN BEFORE SHIFTING
THE PRECIPITATION S SUN NIGHT AND MON. SAT WILL REMAIN MILD ENOUGH
FOR MOSTLY RAIN TO FALL OVER THE NW EXCEPT THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. RAPID COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE SAT NIGHT AND SUN THOUGH AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE. ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE N WILL
RACE S ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS WELL. POTENTIAL
FOR A MODERATE E CANYON WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SUN. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW FROM LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRYING WILL COMMENCE BY MON OVER THE N...WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION S OF INTERSTATE 40. ANYTHING LEFT ON TUE WILL BE OVER
OUR FAR SC AND SE ZONES...WITH MOST MODELS NOW HAVING TUE DRY.
TWO WEAKER SYSTEMS COULD IMPACT NM...ONE ON THU AND ANOTHER ON SAT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFALL OVER THE N OR E...WITH CHILLY
TEMPERATURES REMAINING FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
AREA WIDE. CHJ
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA. A BROAD CIRCULATION OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS UP OVER THE STATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS
ARE FORESEEN.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS TRANSITIONING EAST
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS NEAR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING HAS GIVEN WAY TO SOME MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH OTHER AREAS
CONTINUING TO HOST LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH POOR
MIXING/VENTILATION.
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL SET UP AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS
PRONOUNCED AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS/MORNINGS. RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL
BE POOR TO FAIR IN MANY AREAS OF THE STATE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS.
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE THE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED...AND
WESTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT
DUE TO INCREASED MIXING HEIGHTS. CENTRAL VALLEYS WILL STILL STRUGGLE
TO FULLY OVERCOME INVERSIONS...LEAVING POOR DISPERSION/MIXING.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP ANOTHER 2 TO 7 DEGREES WITH RH
FALLING AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERY IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS TREND UPWARD
SOME.
VENTILATION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD AND RH WILL INCREASE
GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GROWING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BARREL IN TO THE STATE
EARLY SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR SHARPLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF PRECIP...AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NE PLAINS. FINER DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT HAZY AS TO PLACEMENT
AND AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY TIME FRAME.
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TAKE UP RESIDENCE THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER WAVES AND ASSOCIATED AIR MASSES REINFORCE THE
COLDER AIR THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 18 55 25 53 / 0 0 5 20
DULCE........................... 12 56 15 51 / 0 0 0 20
CUBA............................ 13 57 18 51 / 0 0 0 20
GALLUP.......................... 10 58 19 52 / 0 0 5 30
EL MORRO........................ 12 57 24 52 / 0 0 0 30
GRANTS.......................... 11 59 19 53 / 0 0 0 30
QUEMADO......................... 13 60 22 54 / 0 0 0 30
GLENWOOD........................ 24 66 31 62 / 0 0 0 30
CHAMA........................... 14 55 15 47 / 0 0 0 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 24 56 25 51 / 0 0 0 20
PECOS........................... 25 60 27 53 / 0 0 0 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 13 57 15 49 / 0 0 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 11 52 15 45 / 0 0 0 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 10 54 17 45 / 0 0 0 10
TAOS............................ 14 56 14 50 / 0 0 0 10
ESPANOLA........................ 14 60 22 55 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE........................ 20 55 25 52 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 21 56 25 53 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 28 56 30 56 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 28 57 32 57 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 22 58 26 58 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 25 57 33 57 / 0 0 0 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 18 60 24 61 / 0 0 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 25 57 30 59 / 0 0 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 25 62 31 63 / 0 0 0 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 23 54 28 53 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 16 60 24 57 / 0 0 0 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 26 58 31 54 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 26 60 30 60 / 0 0 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 29 61 30 62 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 28 58 30 57 / 0 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 19 65 23 54 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 17 67 21 57 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 25 64 28 57 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 33 71 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 25 67 31 61 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 28 72 32 67 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 28 71 33 67 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 27 72 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 29 69 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 28 70 32 70 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 28 71 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 27 70 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 28 71 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 26 66 29 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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