FXUS61 KBGM 251800
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
100 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME AREAS WILL HAVE FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT
BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE A
DRAMATIC CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER AIR AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN WITH POCKETS OF SLEET
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST
OF OUR AREA WITH DEW POINTS ALSO RISING TO NEAR FREEZING. STILL
BELIEVE THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ONCE THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES NORTHERN PA AND SOUTHERN NY LATE TODAY... BUT THIS
WILL MAINLY BE A CONCERN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALSO STILL
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR SOME SLEET PELLETS
AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION AS EVAPORATIONAL COOLING COOLS
THE ENTIRE COLUMN TO NEAR FREEZING.
DESPITE THE FACT THAT SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN
PA THIS MORNING... ITS HARD TO IGNORE THE TRENDS IN BOTH THE
OBSERVATIONS AND THE MODELS TOWARD A SLIGHTLY WARMER OUTCOME FOR
TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT ADVISORIES GOING IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT... BUT AT
THIS POINT REALLY FEEL THAT MOST PROBLEMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS... AS VALLEY TEMPERATURES HOVER BETWEEN 32 AND
36 DEGREES. THIS WILL MOST ESPECIALLY BE TRUE FOR THE LAKE PLAIN
FROM AUBURN TO SYRACUSE WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS POINT ALSO
BELIEVE THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
NIGHT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WYOMING AND LACKAWANNA
VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 AM...PCPN WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE SAT NGT AS LOPRES
ALONG EAST COAST SHUNTS SFC TROF EAST INTO NE. CLDR AIR WILL ALLOW
RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW OVRNGT. SFC TEMPS WILL DETERMINE EXTENT OF
RAIN/FZRA POSSIBLE BUT FOR NOW HV SIMPLIFIED THINGS AND MENTION
JUST RA/SN MIX. EXPECT PCPN TO HANG ON LONGEST ACRS THE EAST WHERE
LKLY-CAT POPS CONT THRU 12Z SUN.
DRY SLOT ON SUN WILL RESULT IN VRY LITTLE PCPN RMNDR OF THE WEEKEND.
FLOW WL TURN BACK TO THE SW WITH LK EFFECT SNOW HOLDING OFF THRU END
OF SHORT TERM AS UL TROF HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN ABV NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH MAXES TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 406 AM...SVRL WVS PROGGED TO PASS THRU TUESDAY EVENTUALLY TURNING
FLOW TO THE NW. H8 TEMPS PLUMMET TO BLO -20C RESULTING IN PLENTY
OF LK INSTABILITY FOR LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THRU WED. CANNOT RULE
OUT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACRS UPSTATE NY DRG THIS
TIME...BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE FLOW WHICH FOR NOW LOOKS TO
BE 300-320 DEGREES PER GFS. HWVR 00Z EURO BUILDS SFC HIPRES IN BY
12Z WED WITH ONLY A QUICK SHOT OF LES DRG THE EXTNDD PD. THUS
EXTNDD FCST UP IN THE AIR GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES IN LATEST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST CYCLE
AS A FRONT CONTINUES MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS SHOW PRECIP NOW BEGINNING TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AS THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS PROGRESS...PRECIP
WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN REMAINS THE POSSIBILITIES OF FZRA...AS SOME LOCATIONS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONE LOCATION WHERE FZRA
WILL BE THE MOST POSSIBLE WILL BE KRME AS COLD AIR REMAINS
TRAPPED WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A PREVAILING
FZRA MENTION AT KRME WHILE ONLY BRIEFLY MENTIONING AT THE
REMAINING TAF SITES. WITH TEMPS NOW RESIDING IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S AT OTHER SITES...AM GROWING MORE CONFIDENT THAT RA WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINING LOCATIONS. CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT A
BRIEF RASN MIX AS PRECIP BEGINS...HOWEVER CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH TEMPS REMAINING STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY CLIMBING OVERNIGHT...AM INCLINED TO KEEP RA GOING FOR NOW.
CURRENT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST.
HEAVIEST PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00-06
UTC...AFTER WHICH...ONLY -SHRA/FZRA IS EXPECTED AS THE MAIN
ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MORNING AS
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS MOVE OVER THE REGION.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
SUN/MON/TUE...MVFR WITH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW MOSTLY AT NY
SITES.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ022>025-036-044-045-055-056.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ062.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ009-037-046-057.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ015>018.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...CMG
