FXUS64 KLZK 291702
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1102 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST SITES...UNTIL AFTER FROPA.
TSRA CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE CONTD TO INCRS ACRS THE FA DURG THE OVERNIGHT HRS...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING MVFR CIGS ATTM. INCRSG SLY FLOW WL
CONT TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO AR TODAY AS CDFNT APCHS FM
THE W. THE FNT IS PROGGED TO ENTER NWRN AR ARND 18Z...INTO CNTRL AR
SHORTLY AFT 30/00Z AND OUT OF SERN AR ARND 30/09Z. RAIN WL BCM MORE
WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY AS FNT PUSHES INTO THE STATE...WITH IFR CONDS
EXPECTED TO BCM MORE WIDESPREAD. CONDS WL SLOLY IMPROVE LATER IN
THE PD OVR NWRN AR AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MILD TEMPS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED CU STREAMING OUT
AHEAD THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER CENTRAL OK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POPPING UP AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH BEST CHC AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE FA BY MONDAY
MORNING...MODELS INDICATE SOME LINGERING PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FILL IN TEMPORARILY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL HELP PUMP GULF MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM. AS OF THE LATEST
RUNS...THE ECMWF HAS MOVED THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER IN LINE WITH
THE GFS. OPTED NOT TO TAKE POPS COMPLETELY OUT...BUT DID LOWER
THEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTH.
AS FOR THE WINTER PRECIP CHANCES...IT WILL BE A QUESTION OF
TIMING. 1000MB-500MB THICKNESSES ARE TRENDING HIGHER...WITH COOL
AIR LIKELY HAVING A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TO MOISTURE. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHC -RA/SN MIX FOR A WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NOW...MAINLY OVER
EXTREME NORTH ARKANSAS. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UP IF MODELS SHIFT THIS SYSTEM ANY FURTHER NORTH
.OR IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AND TAKES ON THE ECMWF TIMING.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
STORM SYS WL CONT TO DEPART TO THE NE OF THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PD. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WL BLD INTO THE FA BEHIND THE SYS.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF EVEN COLDER AIR WL FOLLOW THU NGT AND FRI.
HIGH PRES WL BEGIN SLIDING E OF THE AREA BY SAT...ALLOWING FOR A
SLGT MODERATION IN TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 59 39 51 34 / 70 80 30 10
CAMDEN AR 66 47 54 37 / 80 90 30 10
HARRISON AR 56 34 50 33 / 40 40 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 44 54 33 / 70 70 30 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 63 43 53 34 / 70 80 30 10
MONTICELLO AR 65 46 53 39 / 80 90 30 10
MOUNT IDA AR 62 43 54 33 / 70 70 20 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 57 35 50 33 / 40 50 10 10
NEWPORT AR 60 41 51 35 / 70 80 30 10
PINE BLUFF AR 64 45 52 37 / 80 80 30 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 60 39 53 32 / 60 70 20 10
SEARCY AR 61 41 52 34 / 70 80 30 10
STUTTGART AR 63 44 52 36 / 80 80 30 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...99
