FXUS65 KFGZ 300333
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...BRIEF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL 
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO 
GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD AWAY FROM ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 
TO 48 HOURS. EXPECT BREEZY AND COLD NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY 
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FROM TUESDAY 
ONWARD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO WARM UP TO NEAR SEASONAL 
NORMALS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW 
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD 
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THIS EVENING. THIS STORM HAS BEEN CUT OFF 
FROM THE POLAR FRONT JET AND IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG STEERING FLOW 
WILL MOVE EASTWARD VERY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW CHANCES 
FOR BRIEF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS THIS 
EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL 
ACCUMULATIONS WITH AT MOST A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL IN THE STRONGEST 
SHOWER BANDS. THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION HOWEVER MAY SEE FROM 1 TO 2 
INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN AROUND THE 
6000 TO 6500 FOOT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SLOWLY 
DRIFTS EASTWARD AND A DRIER...MORE STABLE AIRMASS MOVES IN THE 
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. CLOUDY 
SKIES AND LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER 
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF 
THE AREA. 

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN 
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WARMING UP OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 
SEASONAL NORMALS...DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND PRODUCING LIGHTER WIND 
CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER 
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE EXTENDING THROUGH E91-KFLG-KPRC ISOLATED RAIN 
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SNOW 
LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 6000 FT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER 
CEILINGS OF 2-4 KFT AGL AND/OR VISIBILITY OF 1-3 SM. NORTH OF THE 
LINE ABOVE MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................BOHLIN
AVIATION...............MCCOLLUM

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.