FXUS64 KMEG 301325 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
725 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.UPDATE...
RAIN HAS MOVED OUT ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH INCLUDING TUPELO EXCEPT FOR
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST FEW COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST MS. ADJUSTED THE
POP GRIDS TO TAKE IN ACCOUNT CURRENT RADARS. THINK ALL RAIN WILL
BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-MORNING.
JCL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING QUICKLY THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS
MORNING...AND WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK.
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH MS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT WAS ALSO MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL BE
MAINLY FROM ABOUT TUPELO AND SOUTHEASTWARD AT SUNRISE. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR TODAY ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT LOW CLOUDS
WILL LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED
SHALLOW DENSE FOG NEAR RIVERS AND CREEKS WITH THE WET GROUND AND
LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...WILL LET DAYSHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT THIS BEFORE
REINTRODUCING IN THE ZONES. TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH.
A TURN TO MORE WET WEATHER IS FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. CONTINUED TO FAVOR
THE ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO EAST TX BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH MS. RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A CHILLY DAY WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE MIDSOUTH. A SURFACE
LOW WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH
AND EXACT PATH. COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES TO OUR EAST. LOOKING AT
THE SOUNDINGS...THINK THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
FOR ALL RAIN MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW FROM THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IF AND HOW SOON ANY
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. FOR NOW MENTIONED A CHANGE TO A RAIN AND
SNOW MIXTURE OVER ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...ATTM...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK
UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE EVENT AND GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
RELATIVELY WARM THUS KEEPING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
BY THURSDAY MORNING PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALLOWING MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO PUSH INTO
THE MIDSOUTH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO NEAR
MINUS 10C ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDSOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS MODEL MOVES THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE AREA
QUICKER TO THE EAST THAN THE ECMWF OVER BY THE WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN BY SUNDAY. FOR NOW...FOLLOWED THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS
COLD CANADIAN AIR OVER THE MIDSOUTH LONGER AND ALSO KEEPS THE
MIDSOUTH RAINFREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IS BEGINNING TO
EXIT TO THE EAST. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 14Z. CLEARING SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH KMKL AND KTUP CLEARING THE
LATEST. NORTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS MORNING...THEN WILL DIMINISH
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BORGHOFF
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 52 36 60 45 / 10 0 0 50
MKL 49 28 57 39 / 10 0 0 30
JBR 51 32 56 39 / 10 0 0 30
TUP 53 33 58 45 / 10 10 10 60
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
