FXUS64 KEWX 052333
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
533 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS RESULTING IN A
STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO BORDERLINE
VFR/MVFR ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 06-07Z. MVFR CIGS AOB 2 KFT
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BY 08-10Z. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOISTURE RESULTING IN
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES WITH IFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK.
CIGS HOVERING BETWEEN IFR AND LIFR AND VSBYS AS LOW AS 1 SM IN
-RA/DZ/BR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SE-SLY NEAR 10 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AS WINDS IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER RESPOND TO AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A WARM FRONTAL SCENARIO IS FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 24H AS GULF MOISTURE IS LIFTED OVER THE FRONTAL LAYER.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY...WITH LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING...MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ON SUNDAY IS TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST...AND WE MAY NOT
MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. OUR FORECAST IS
FOR MID TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS UP TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THE LOWEST
12Z MOS GUIDANCE. MOISTURE WILL GET SCOURED A BIT LATE IN THE DAY
AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. FOG
IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY BECOME DENSE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA MONDAY...THEN BACK-OUT
LATER TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WARM FRONTAL SCENARIO WILL SETUP FOR FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF
YET ANOTHER WEAK FRONT. THE THEME FOR THE WEEK IS A PROGRESSION
OF WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES FOLLOWED BY SOUPY WARM FRONT CONDITIONS.
THE 12Z GFS IS SHOWING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SPILLING DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE AND PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK
(8-9 DAYS FROM NOW). THERE IS SOME RUN-T0-RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE
GFS IN DEPICTING THIS AIRMASS...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MODEL CYCLES CLOSELY AS THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE OUR
NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 38 52 40 57 49 / 0 40 - 20 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 34 52 37 58 49 / 0 50 - 20 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 34 52 44 59 48 / 0 40 - 20 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 37 50 39 55 46 / 0 30 - 10 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 37 62 44 64 51 / 0 - 0 - 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 38 51 37 55 48 / 0 40 - 20 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 34 56 45 62 49 / 0 20 - 10 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 35 53 40 59 49 / 0 50 - 20 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 39 56 43 58 51 / 10 70 20 30 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 37 52 48 62 51 / 0 30 - 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 35 54 47 62 51 / 0 30 - 20 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08/25
