FXUS64 KSJT 262124
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
324 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2009
.SHORT TERM...
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME SNOW COVER STILL REMAINS ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT SOME MELTING TO OCCUR
DUE TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
SUNDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.
28
FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AND MONDAY...LIGHT NORTH SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY
WILL HELP HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN COLD AIR IN PLACE
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ANALYSIS OF PRESSURE...WIND...AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS FROM THE NAM AND GFS 300 DEGREE KELVIN
SURFACES INDICATES GOOD UPGLIDE WILL BEGIN OVER MOST OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA...INDICATE AN
UNCERTAIN PICTURE REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE. THUS...WILL BEGIN
THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD WITH 20 POPS FOR ALL BUT THE BIG COUNTRY
WITH LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SLEET. FOR THE SECOND 6 HOURS...WILL
CONTINUE 20 POPS FOR THE SAME AREA. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO INCLUDE
LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH THE OTHER TWO WEATHER ELEMENTS. FOR
TUESDAY...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH MORE CLEAR REGARDING
PRECIPITATION TYPE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BIG COUNTRY. DECIDED TO
CONTINUE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS UNCHANGED FOR THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...I DID INCLUDE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE SNOW GRIDS
FOR MAINLY OUR NORTHERN TWO COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND AFTERNOON HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE LONG TERM. THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE 20
POPS FOR MAINLY OUR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR THAT PERIOD.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. SO...WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF THE SAME THREE WEATHER ELEMENTS AS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...IF WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES HOLD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS MODELS ARE
INDICATING...THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS WITH LITTLE IF ANY
FANFARE. THUS...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 22 46 25 45 27 / 0 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 24 53 25 48 30 / 0 0 0 0 20
JUNCTION 24 56 26 50 32 / 0 0 0 0 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/HUBER
