FXUS63 KGLD 120551
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1050 PM MST FRI DEC 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
216 PM MST FRI DEC 11 2009

ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED A SPLIT
FLOW REGIME OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AN ELONGATED
MID/UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SOUTHERN STREAM WAS LOCATED OVER THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA EASTWARD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS BEFORE
MERGING WITH THE NORTHERN STEAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CROSS
MOUNTAIN FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR THE FORMATION OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. VIS SATELLITE CLEARLY DEPICTED SNOW
FIELD FROM RECENT STORM WHICH HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO ERODE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND TEMPS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG OVER SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM IS NOTED ON THE NAM/EC 290-295K SURFACES. BUFR PROFILES
INDICATE SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE SATURATED LAYER. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL AREA OF -ZL/FZFG OVER THIS AREA
AFTER 09Z. FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE/DOWNGLIDE WILL TAKE OVER AFTER
15Z SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
H85 TEMPS FINALLY WARM TO ABOVE 0C ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN A
FURTHER MODERATION IN SURFACE TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DEPICTING ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. PRIOR
FORECAST HANDLED THIS SCENARIO RELATIVELY WELL WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. GFS BUFR PROFILES AS WELL AS THE 290K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR -ZL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. EC IS
LESS BULLISH FROM AN ISENTROPIC STANDPOINT INDICATING DOWNGLIDE
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. GIVEN LACK OF CONSENSUS...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
OUT FOR NOW.

MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS ACROSS
THE REGION. H85 TEMPS WARM FURTHER ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
A SLIGHT COOLING OF TEMPS.

FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
1050 PM MST FRI DEC 11 2009
06Z TAFS... VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE 24-HOUR PERIOD WITH LIGHT 
WINDS AND SCT/BKN CIRRUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LOW CIGS WERE 
ADVECTING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND CURRENT 
TRAJECTORIES SHOULD KEEP LOW CIGS WELL EAST OF THE AREA.

MCGUIRE
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

$$