FXUS64 KEWX 280529
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1129 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WAS CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST. A SPOKE OF INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE I-35 TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
AND COLD FRONT...DUE LATE SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AOB 4K FT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 00Z WITH IFR CIGS FOR KAUS AND KSAT
BY 09Z. SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING
SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 843 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO REFLECT BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG A
SPOKE OF PVA MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
LAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKER THAN EARLIER
FORECAST DUE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE SPOKE AND
HAVE GONE A LITTLE COOLER ON TEMPERATURES THOSE AREAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT UNTIL DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE. REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK, ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE
TO HAVE DIFFICULTY ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. 850 MB FLOW TURNS BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH MAY KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS WARMER ENDING A THREAT FOR WINTER
TYPE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY
PROVIDE FOR STRONG DYNAMICAL COOLING KEEPING A THREAT FOR WINTER
TYPE PRECIPITATION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/
DISCUSSION...
WIDE RANGE OF WEATHER TO DISCUSS THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER US AT PRESENT WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES EXTREME SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A
MOIST WAA PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE AS WELL AS AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL JET AND PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL COMBINE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING
INSTABILITIES AND JET DYNAMICS SUNDAY WILL INITIATE CONVECTION
ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO REGION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
UPPER SYSTEM TO THE WEST. ENHANCED WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAINS
WILL BE THE RESULT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS IS WHERE IT GETS
INTERESTING. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE WEST..AFTER HAVING DUG
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BEGINS ITS MOVE EASTWARD. THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL CLIP OUR FAR WESTERN SECTION (OF OUR CWA) BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. A MIXTURE
OF RAIN AND SLEET POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU..HILL COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND
AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER THE HILLS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE WIDESPREAD COLD RAIN AND
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. CLEARING FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE CWA. CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
DIG FURTHER SOUTH INTO MEXICO NEXT FRIDAY AND WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. DRY AND COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 47 71 61 70 46 / - - 10 30 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 44 70 60 71 48 / - - 10 30 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 45 72 59 73 47 / - - 10 30 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 46 70 59 64 44 / - - 10 40 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 49 73 57 70 50 / - - - 20 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 48 70 60 68 45 / - - 10 40 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 42 73 58 71 48 / - - 10 30 70
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 47 71 60 73 48 / - - 10 30 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 48 73 62 75 49 / - - 10 30 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 48 73 60 72 47 / - - 10 30 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 47 73 60 74 49 / - - 10 20 70
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/13
