FXUS61 KPBZ 291602
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1102 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM
BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MASS SETS IN MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
15Z RUC 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD RIDGING ADVECTING EAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROF AXIS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1007MB LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A 1022
HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. LOCALLY...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE
LOW ACROSS NRN OHIO AND WRN PA. WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF
THE AREA...WAA AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ARE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
QUICKLY TODAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...A SRLY FLOW WITH WAA WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND LATEST TRENDS...HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS UP 5 TO 7 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY.
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.
ALTHOUGH UNSEASONABLY WARM...FCST TEMPS ARE SHY OF RECORD
VALUES...WITH PITTSBURGH REACHING 67 ON THIS DAY IN 1927.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH E-CNTRL OH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND EXTEND ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING.
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF QPF ARE FCST ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY WARM NIGHT IS
EXPECTED BEFORE FROPA...WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 40 BEHIND
THE FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LAKE ENHANCED
INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE LOWER
30S...PERHAPS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DISTRICT TUESDAY WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. PUSHES
ACROSS THE DISTRICT WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RISK OF SHOWERS AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN
THE BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION BUILDING IN FOR SUNDAY...A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL SETUP EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR LLWS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS AREA TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH REDUCED CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE EXPECTED. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
PREVAILING MVFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY IN POST FRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TOWARD IFR BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR PREVAILING VFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL THEN COME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
