FXUS62 KMHX 260306
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1006 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA WILL PUSH
NE TO A POSITION OVER SE VIRGINIA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS FROM
THE W EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 815 PM FRIDAY... LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AREA THIS
EVENING. WESTERN SECTIONS ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN. HAVENT
SEEN ANY LIGHTNING IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. RAIN IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS
FAIRLY HEAVY...UP TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF IN AN HOUR. AS THE
RAIN MOVES OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 230PM FRI..WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT TO
OCC. MODERATE PCPN IS IMPACTING THE AREA AHEAD OF A 1006 MB TRIPLE
POINT SFC LOW JUST WEST OF FLORENCE SC. THERE IS AN AREA OF HEAVIER
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN A CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENT MOVING
INTO NE SC JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE THROUGH A PORTION OF OUR CWA BETWEEN
22Z-03Z. SINCE VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS OCCURRING BEHIND THIS LINE HAVE
CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED POPS LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY INLAND.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST BUT WITH STRONG WIND
FIELDS/SHEAR THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A STRONG TSTM OR
TWO...MAINLY OVER OUR SRN CWA AND OFFSHORE. IT IS NOTED THAT THE
UPSTREAM CONVECTION DOES NOT HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING ANY
DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOS AT THIS POINT SO GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE FACTORS
THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW WITH THIS EVENT.
GRADIENT SE WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...GUSTING TO 20-30MPH EVEN OUTSIDE OF PCPN AND VEERING MORE
S TO SW THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE OBX COULD OCCASIONALLY SEE HIGHER
GUSTS PER NORMAL. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS GRADIENT RELAXES
QUITE A BIT S OF THE SFC LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SE VA BY
12Z SAT. WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OBX BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IT IS NOTED THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED
QUITE A BIT WITH THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM...AND WHILE THE QPF SHOULD
BE A QUICK HIT THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD .5-1.25
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN HEAVIER
PCPN/TSTMS. TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDINESS AND LITTLE IF
ANY CAA EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...MOSTLY UPPER 40S
INLAND WITH L-M50S NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3PM FRIDAY...SHORT TERM WX LOOKS PLEASANT AS FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP PUSHES OFFSHORE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDING IN
FROM THE SW FROM ITS ORIGIN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS MOSTLY SW AHEAD OF TROUGHING TO OUR WEST/RIDGING MOVING
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THICKNESSES AND
EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT...WITH
LOW 60S ON SAT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF ERN NC. ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER ON SUN GIVEN VERY MODEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AS THE
VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SLIDES E A BIT...AND 850 TEMPS
COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES. SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN OVER THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IN OCC BOUTS OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE GOMEX...ESP SRN AREAS. ALSO NOTED THE
12Z ECMWF IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON SUN AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER SO HAVE HELD
OFF ADDING ANY POPS FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED GRIDS.
STILL LOOKING FOR A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MSTR TO MOVE THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING MID LVL SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE
VORTEX MOVING INTO THE NE STATES. MORE SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL KICK
IN WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 40S OR NR 50 IF
WE ARE LUCKY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND LOWS IN THE 20S INLAND/30S
IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY WX PERSISTS THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE W. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RA ON WED AS WEAK
COASTAL TROFFING DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST...BEST CHANCES NEAR THE
S COAST. STILL LOOKING AT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO
THU AND THU NIGHT WITH NEXT SRN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 40 FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY. SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES MODERATE..ESP WITH LOW TEMPS...BUT NOT AS MUCH WITH
HIGH TEMPS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 8PM FRIDAY...IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD THIS EVENING AS
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDESTORMS MOVES THROUGH. THIS LINE
WILL BE PAST ALL TAF SITES BY 04Z OR 05Z. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR
WITH FOG FORMING IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIPITATION. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. GFS IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT PRECIP
OVER THE REGION LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF...BUT APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT THIS
POINT. REINFORCING HIGH PRES AND PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW AND VFR
EXPECTED THE REST OF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 10 PM FRI...STRONG SELY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WITH GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUES AT DIAMOND AND FRYING
PAN SHOALS BUOYS SO WILL MAINTAIN GALE WARNING S OF OREGON INLET.
ACROSS THE COOLER WATERS IN THE SOUNDS AND N OF OREGON INLET SFC OBS
INDICATING WINDS GENERALLY 20-25 KT SO SCA HERE LOOKS GOOD...BUT
COULD SEE STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN IN HEAVIER PCPN EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING BUT DUE TO SHORT DURATION WILL HANDLE
ANY STRONGER WINDS WITH MWS/SMW AS NEEDED. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOSE BUILDING SEAS TO 10 TO 15 FEET OR SO LATE THIS
EVENING...HIGHEST OFF OBX THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS COLD
FRONT CROSSES WITH MAINLY W WINDS EXPECTED SAT AOB 15 KTS. DESPITE
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WAVEWATCH CONTS TO SHOW A BUILDING ENE SWELL
FROM STORM E OF CANADIAN MARITIMES. LINGERING ESE SWELL FROM PREV
WIND EVENT COMBINED WITH THIS INCREASING ENE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS
AOB 6 FT THROUGH SUN FOR CNTRL AND NRN WTRS.
A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUN NIGHT WILL ALLOW REINFORCING HIGH
PRES TO REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO FAIRLY STRONG W TO NW
WINDS MON AND TUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BY WED...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ALLOWS THINGS TO
GO DOWNHILL AGAIN INTO NEXT THU.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ095-098-103-
104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MW
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...CGG
MARINE...RF/SK
