FXUS63 KEAX 301734
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM 00Z
STILL SHOW A SPLIT FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING...
WITH A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH BAJA...AND THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO GO RATHER
LIGHT...AND ALMOST PUSHED ALL THE CLOUDS OFF TO OUR EAST. DRY AIR ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE AXIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP PRECIPITOUSLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE OUR LATE HARD FREEZE /28 DEGREES OR LESS/ WILL
LIKELY OCCUR THIS MORNING. 

FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST 
SURFACE WINDS WITH A DOWN SLOPE COMPONENT WILL BRING WELL ABOVE 
NORMAL CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AS WE SAY GOODBYE TO A RATHER MILD 
NOVEMBER. HAVE KEPT FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE 
CURRENT CROP OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS...AND ABOVE ANY OF THE GOING 
GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TUESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS ADJUST TO THE 
SOUTHWEST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL ISSUES WITH TUESDAY 
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER THAT MIGHT BE 
BLOWING OFF THE CUTOFF LOW AS IT SWINGS INTO TEXAS.

FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED AS THE MID AND SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE FITS
WITH PINNING DOWN THE PATH OF THE CUTOFF LOW AS IT EJECTS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST RUN OF THE NAM-WRF IS BEGINNING TO ADVERTISE
SOME PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY...BUT CURRENTLY
THIS IS THE OUTLIER AS THE REST OF THE MODELS STILL POINT AT OUR
FORECAST AREA GETTING STUCK IN THE DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE EJECTING LOW
AND A TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM. HAVE KEPT GOING FORECAST DRY FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AT THIS
TIME...BUT STANDARD MODEL TRENDS WITH REGARDS TO THE EJECTING LOW
WOULD INDICATE THAT THE LOW MIGHT EJECT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ADDED SOME
FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENIC FORCING AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS AND ADVECTS THE COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE
WINTER SEASON THUS FAR ACROSS THE REGION. 

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SWLY SFC 
WINDS SHOULD NOT ENTIRELY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL DECREASE IN 
SPEED VERSUS THIS AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE LLWS LATE NIGHT 
AS SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP...THOUGH MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL 
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. HIGHER GUSTS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE TUESDAY 
MORNING.

21

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$