FXUS61 KILN 040247
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
947 PM EST THU DEC 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THICK LOW LEVEL CLODUS CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT THE
EASTERN CWA. HAD A REPORT OF LIGHT SLEET FROM THE COLUMBUS AREA
EARLIER THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING AND DO NOT
EVEN WARRANT A 20 POP...BUT STILL MAY SEE A VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLE
OR SLEET PELLET ACROSS THE EAST. CLEARING LINE IS CURRENTLY MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS INDIANA...AND WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. EXPECT CLEARING
TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING QUICK TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...SO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO SPEED UP
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CURRENT THICK CLOUDS IN PLACE...TEMPS
HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO FALL. NUDGED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWEST TO CLEAR OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST. A
STORM SYSTEM TRAVELING ALONG THE GULF REGION TO THE ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN EAST AS PER LATEST ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO LACK OF WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS WILL IN THE 30S...WITH
LOWS DOWN AROUND 20.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON
MONDAY. EXPECT MAIN FORCING TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT PRECIP CONFINED TO THAT AREA. MODELS THAT ONCE WERE MORE
IN LINE FOR THE STRONGER MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SYSTEM HAVE NOW BEGUN TO
DIVERGE ON LOW PLACEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. WITH MAIN SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START OUT WITH RAIN. WARMED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM DUE TO NEWEST ECMWF WHICH
HAS LOW PRESSURE CENTER FURTHER NW HOWEVER DID NOT TOTALLY BUY INTO
THIS SOLUTION AS IT IS VASTLY DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WILL KEEP RAIN AROUND LONGER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
HAVING LIGHT SNOW MIX IN AT THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ARE LIFTING TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MAY STILL SEE OCCL MVFR CIGS THRU 02Z...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL OHIO. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS IS NEAR IL/IN BORDER AND WILL
WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH OHIO AND KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. VFR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z SAT WITH JUST SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME DAYTIME VFR STRATOCUMULUS. STORM SYSTEM DEEPENING
OFF THE EAST COAST LATE FRIDAY WILL CAUSE LOW AND MID CLOUDS TO
THICKEN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...BUT
MAJORITY OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE CLE-CMH-CVG
CORRIDOR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HAWBLITZEL
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAWBLITZEL
