FXUS61 KCAR 150815
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
315 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OVER THE STATE TODAY. THE LOW WILL
STALL OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGES THIS TERM ARE SNOW AMOUNTS...WINDS AND HEADLINES.

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING REFLECTIVITY TO BECOMING MORE ENHANCED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ALONG THE INVERTED
TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 07Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE LOW PRES OVER LAKE
ONTARIO W/THE GFS AND NAM MATCHING UP NICELY. THE SREF WAS RIGHT
THERE AS WELL AND THE PRECIP CHCS ARE BASED ON THE SREF THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM WAS USED FOR
TONIGHT.

GOOD FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS PER THE NAM AND GFS THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY FOR THE DOWNEAST AREAS AND THEN BEST FORCING SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS NEAR THE COAST AND THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD. PRECIP CHCS
WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THIS REGION WILL LOSE MOST OF THE FORCING. BEST QPF IS SITUATED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN THINGS
SHIFT TO THE THE NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN STAYING MOIST THROUGH
700MBS FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE THE DOWNEAST AND
COAST START TO DRY OUT AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. DECENT LLVL CONVERGENCE
W/THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL LEAD TO STEADY SNOWFALL BREAKING OUT
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
BLENDED THE GFS/NAM AND HPC FOR QPF AND THEN USED A >12:1 SNOW
RATIO WHICH YIELDS SOME SNOWFALL TOTALS OF >4 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
W/A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTING 12 PM TODAY AND RUNNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
HOULTON AND MILLINOCKET W/AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE BANGOR REGION.
WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR STARTING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW
INTENSIFIES W/SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH AFT 06Z. THIS WILL
BE ADDRESSED IN THE STATEMENT. 
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALSO VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR POP...SKY AND QPF. WITH
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM AN INSTABILITY AND DEFORMATION WILL INCREASE
POPS AND QPF IN NORTH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE THE CASE
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND PIVOTS
TO SOUTH OF SURFACE LOW. FOR SNOW FALL AMOUNTS HAVE USED OFFICE
SNOW TOOL RUN ON NAM. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE
NAM12. EXPECT THIS TO WORK WELL WITH CLOUD COVER FOR ENTIRE PERIOD
IN NORTH AND ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WELL MIXED. MODEL TEMPERATURE
ALSO FITS WILL AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD BRINGING COLD AIR IN AFTER
PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF. WILL USE GMOS FOR WINDS.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LOW STAYS IN PLACE NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY UPPER LOW
ELONGATES AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. AT THE SAME
TIME LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE EAST COAST. LATEST
OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES THIS SYSTEM WELL OFF SHORE. HOWEVER PREVIOUS
GFS AND GEM RUN TAKE THIS SYSTEM CLOSER. ALL MODEL KEEP STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL INITIALIZE
ALL GRIDS BEYOND 00Z FRIDAY WITH GMOS. THIS KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTH FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WHICH IS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH ARE LOWER WITH DOWN SLOPE. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
AND POP GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WE ARE LOOKING AT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR KBGR AND
KBHB LATER TONIGHT AS NW FLOW TAKES OVER AND CIGS GO TO VFR.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS ARE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO THROW A GALE WARNING UP STARTING LATER
TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS THE GALES WILL BE
REACHED INITIALLY IN THE GUSTS AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS POINT TO 35
KT GUSTS STARTING AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUING. WNAWAVE DOING OK THIS
MORNING FOR THE WAVES AND ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO
THE CURRENT WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS WHICH SHOW HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO 7-8
FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: HAVE INITIALIZED WIND GRIDS WITH 50/50 BLEND OF NAM12
AND GFS40 THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY THEN TRANSITION TO GMOS WINDS. FOR
WAVES: FETCH IS OFF SHORE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. LONG
PERIOD WAVE FIELD GENERATED BY PREVIOUS SYSTEM FALLS TO 2 FEET OR
LESS BASE ON SPECTRAL...SO EXPECT WIND WAVES GENERATED IN OFF
SHORE FETCH TO BE PRIMARY WAVE FIELD. WILL WNA/4 TO INITIALIZE
WAVES...WILL INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS 1 TO 2 FEET IN OFF SHORE FLOW.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001-002. 
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY 
         FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE