FXAK68 PAFC 242227
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LONG WAVE TROUGH IS ENTRENCHED AROUND 160W WITH THE TROPICAL FETCH
POURING INTO THE PANHANDLE. SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO OUR DOMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF WAVES BUT
OVERALL MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE
ONGOING FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
MADE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...RAIN IS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST SHORTWAVE TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE GULF
COAST WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. AN EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HELP MODERATE PRECIPITATION
TOTALS AND KEEP MARGINAL CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL INSURE THAT ANCHORAGE AND THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA
AS WELL AS THE MATANUSKA VALLEY REMAINS MOSTLY DRY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LIKEWISE...THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR IS SEEING GUSTY NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY WINDS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSING OF ONE OF
THE MORE POTENT SHORTWAVES. TRANQUIL DECEMBER WEATHER...AT LEAST BY
BERING SEA STANDARDS...ALSO PERSISTS OUT WEST WHERE MINIMUM SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN BERING
AROUND THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN FLOW BECOMES RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST COPIED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...LONG
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND FAR WESTERN GULF. INLAND AREAS OF MAINLAND ALASKA LOOK
TO STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 120
         GALES 125 130 138 140 150 155 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB DEC 09