FXUS62 KTAE 250731
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
231 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY AND RIDGES ALONG THE EAST/WEST COASTS. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS DRAWING GULF
MOISTURE UP AND OVER A COOL AND STABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS OVER
NORTH FLORIDA. THE PRECIP FROM THIS OVERRUNNING IS BEING SOMEWHAT
ENHANCED BY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY
TODAY AND THE RAIN OVER THE BIG BEND WILL COME TO AN END.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST ISSUE IS HOW FAR WEST THE RAIN SHIELD
REACHES BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ARGUE
POPS BACK TO PANAMA CITY EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL HAVE THE
GRIDS REFLECT THIS THINKING.
RAIN SHOULD COME TO A QUICK END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE
EXITS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF
THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH...REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...TEMPS WILL BE ON A GRADUAL DOWNWARD
SWING THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S BY
FRIDAY. SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
BY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY
MORNING...GIVEN THAT A PRETTY DECENT GRADIENT WILL STILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REGION.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY AS A
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY MONDAY MORNING A DEEP
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CONUS WITH A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND DROP
ALL THE WAY TO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY...SLIDE EAST
THROUGH LA AND THEN LIFT NE TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS PLACES THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI 12Z MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH LA. SHOWERS AD THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY
TRANSLATES INTO ALABAMA. THE LOW THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY DRAGGING THE FRONT
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. THE 12Z EURO SOLUTION CONTINUES TO
SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...THIS COULD BRING
HEAVY RAINS AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR REGION DURING
THE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL TREND POPS UP SLIGHTLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT KEEP THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF OUR CWA SATURDAY
MORNING AS CONDITIONS SET UP FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAX
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RAIN WILL IMPACT THE
PFN...TLH AND VLD TERMINALS BEFORE DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL BE LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE. THE HEAVIER RAINS WILL BE EAST
OF ALL TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT DHN...ABY AND VLD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THEN...VFR AT AT SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
POSSIBLE BY EARLY THURSDAY AND ADVISORY HEADLINES POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS WITH WINDS
DROPPING BELOW 10 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY DROP
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR ONE TO THREE HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THURSDAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOK MORE LIKELY
OF FRIDAY FOR ALL OF OUR FLORIDA ZONES DUE TO LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 69 43 65 34 62 / 20 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 69 47 65 42 62 / 10 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 68 39 63 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 68 40 64 34 61 / 10 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 66 44 66 35 62 / 30 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 68 47 69 35 64 / 60 10 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 69 49 66 43 61 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CAMP/BARRY
