FXUS63 KSGF 292313
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
513 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FARMINGTON TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF BRANSON. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE A STEADY PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY CLEARING THE CWA BY
DARK. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
BRISK NW WIND. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY IS ENTERING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 

REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE BATTLE OF DRY VERSUS MOIST
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO OUR SOUTHWEST HAVE BEEN LIGHT...ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...THUS ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL
LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A NUISANCE. AREAS ALONG AND SE OF THE I44
WILL BE MOST PRONE TO SEE A BIT OF RAIN WITH INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE
MORE COMMON. DRY ADVECTION SHOULD WIN OUTRIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH CLEARING FROM NW TO SE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
MODERATE TEMPS BACK TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH A CLEAR SKY
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ANOTHER MILD DAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH CUT OFF ENERGY EJECTING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.

GAGAN

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST INCLUDE BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY 
THURSDAY. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA AND THE
SURGE OF A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE OZARKS LATE WEDNESDAY ARE THE
KEY ASPECTS TO THE FORECAST.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE ANTICIPATED
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THE OZARKS BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH SUCH A TRACK...SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS HAVE
BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS THE CWA WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
ARKANSAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...COULD PRODUCE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO LIGHT
SNOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE BETTER CHANCES FOR A
CHANGE OVER WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA. SHOULD MODEL TRENDS SHIFT
NORTH...SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WOULD BE NEEDED.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE 
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THE 
WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE 
TIMING OF LIFTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.  A COLD FRONT IS 
EXITING THE AREA WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND.  AS A 
RESULT...CEILINGS WILL LIFT OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM 
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

KARDELL

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$