FXUS61 KCLE 040451
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1151 PM EST THU DEC 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LAKE EFFECT IS STRUGGLING TO GET GOING AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. I EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO GET GOING
AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLDER
AIR STILL BACK OVER MICHIGAN MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE ONE ISSUE WE STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH IS THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF THE LAKE INFLUENCING THE AIR AS IT IS TRANSPORTED OVER THE
WATER. I THINK RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE NEAR
THE LAKE SHORE BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE NIGHT CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY MORNING IN THE
NORTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE LAKE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AT THIS TIME...I AM LIMITING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND A 10TH OF
AN INCH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE TONIGHT.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS OR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT. THE EXTREME SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE LOWER 30S
OVER MOST AREAS AND UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LEFTOVER DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAKE
PLACE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND THEN TRANSITION INTO
MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER LEVELS TAKES PLACE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AND THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT BAND OVER LAKE ERIE INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
CORNER OF ERIE COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA BY AFTERNOON.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL NOT SEE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
LOCAL MODEL SHOWS RATHER STRONG BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT WILL
EXTEND UP THE LAKE AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS BAND IS PROJECTED TO BE STATIONARY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS
WHERE ONE LOCATION NEAR THE LAKE COULD GET SOME GOOD ACCUMULATIONS
WHILE JUST A FEW MILES SOUTH IT IS SUNNY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE BAND AS IT TRIES TO DEVELOP.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING ITS WAY NORTHEAST SHOULD
KEEP THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. SKIES WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY
TO SOME SUNSHINE AND IT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL PUSH THE LAKE EFFECT BAND OUT OF THE
AREA AND BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER ALL AREAS.
NEXT SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO TAKE PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND OF A FEW DEGREES BY MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD PUSHING A FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS GFS RUNS PULLED THIS SYSTEM NORTH ACROSS THE
CWA WED NITE WITH INTENSE PRESSURE FALLS. THIS MORNINGS GFS RUN IS
TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF FILLING IN THE OHIO VALLEY
LOW IN FAVOR OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS
MORE LIKELY THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION ACCORDINGLY...KEEPING TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GFS-BASED
MOS GUIDANCE.
THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS MOISTURE UP INTO THE AREA FASTER ON
TUESDAY...SO CHANCE POPS BEGIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS AND
TUESDAY EVENING EVERYWHERE. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM ON WED BRINGS H8 TEMPS TO/SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...AND
WENT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS THE CYCLONE
DEVELOPS ON THE COAST TEMPS ALOFT DROP AGAIN AND PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
RETURN TO SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT AND EVEN PUT IN A FEW HOURS OF SKC AT TOL AND FDY EARLY
IN TAF PD. ERI WILL SEE CLOUDS THE LONGEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WITH FLOW TURNING MORE SW AND NATURE OF LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AT ERI TERMINAL MAY BECOME LATE MORNING IF LAKE
EFFECT REMAINS ENOUGH OFFSHORE.
FOR REMAINDER OF SITES AFTER 12Z...EXPECTING EITHER SKC OR SCT
CLOUDS. MODELS PROJECTING AREA OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
ENERGY TO SWING INTO SRN MI THROUGH THE DAY AND HIGH PRESS RIDGE
WINNING OUT ON ERODING CLOUDS AWAY AS THEY TRY TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20KT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE NEAR ERI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. NON VFR MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WESTERLY FLOW NOW BEING REPORTED OVER MOST OF THE LAKE. SPEEDS IN
THE WEST HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT BUOY 5 STILL REPORTING 19
KNOTS AT 18Z. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GO AS IS. THE
FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WSW TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
LAKE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD FINALLY DROP
OFF FOR GOOD LATE FRIDAY IN THE EAST. WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR ON
THE LAKE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT FLOW. THE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW BY SUNDAY EVENING. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU FOLLOW...LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE. ANOTHER LOW WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SW LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>145.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...ASTIFAN
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...KUBINA
