FXUS63 KILX 281134
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
534 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS SLIGHT RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE CONUS...WITH LOW DIGGING IN OVER THE PAC SW...AND
LOW OVER THE NE ON EITHER SIDE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC HAS
SHIFTED TO THE EAST...PUTTING THE FA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND
WARMING UP THE TEMPS A BIT FOR TODAY. FORECAST MODELS ARE FINALLY
IN AGREEMENT WITH CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE SW FOR THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH DIFFERING A BIT ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND/OR
THE EXPANSE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. GOING WITH A BLEND OF BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF IN THE MID RANGE. IN THE SHORTER RANGE...LEANING
TO A BLEND OF VERY SIMILAR NAM AND GFS. 

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
RATHER SUNNY TODAY WITH TEMPS COMING UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS
COLD. CONTINUING THE RATHER SUNNY AND WARM UNTIL SUNDAY...WHERE
THE WARMING OF THE DAY WILL BE CUT OFF BY THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT
AS A LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH. TEMPS DROP BEHIND ANOTHER SHOT AT
PRECIP SUN/SUN NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD HOLD OFF ON DROPPING TOO FAR
UNTIL AFTER THE NARROW SWATH OF PRECIP MOVES OUT...AND PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID FOR THIS EVENT.  

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN WILL KEEP TEMPS RATHER CLOSE TO
NORMS. QUIET WEATHER UNTIL LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SW AND PASSES JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. ECMWF MUCH FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW... AND GFS WELL OUT OF THE REGION...AND A TOUCH
FASTER. AS FOR THE TRACK...THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT SPLITS IT FOR
NOW...AND FAVORS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
ECMWF...BUT THE LESS DIFFUSE QPF FIELD OF THE GFS. A LOT OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT...BUT FOR NOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP APPEAR
TO BE THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR WED/WED NIGHT.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 534 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

ANOTHER QUIET 12Z TAF VALID PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TERMINALS. THE AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH MINIMAL
CLOUD COVER. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TREND MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT THIS FROPA...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF KPIA...WILL OCCUR AFTER THE TAF VALID TIME.

BAK
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$