FXHW60 PHFO 072003
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON DEC 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER MAUI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE...
AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO TRADE WINDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LARGE AND DANGEROUS NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING VERY HIGH SURF TO THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE MOLOKAI CHANNEL HAS A 90 MILE WIDE
BAND OF CLOUDS AND STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE
WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BAND ARE NORTHERLY...WHICH IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS RATHER CHOPPY RIGHT NOW FOR THE GIANT SURF EVENT IN
PROGRESS ON THE NORTH SHORE AND MAY BE KEEPING THE WAVES FROM
REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW. THERE IS A DISSIPATING
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ABOUT 135 MILES N OF KAUAI AS WELL. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE AND FROM THE N TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY
VEER TO MORE TYPICAL TRADE WINDS...FROM THE NE...TONIGHT AND TUE AND
SLACKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE DATELINE MOVES ESE TOWARD THE
ISLANDS.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN N OF THE ISLANDS TUE INTO THU
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME SO THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF. THE RIDGE
WILL LIFT OUT MORE QUICKLY THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH BACKGROUND FLOW
BECOMING SE AND ISLAND WINDS TURNING TO LAND AND SEA BREEZES.
LOOKING FARTHER OUT IN TIME...OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE SUN NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
THE NW BUOYS ARE STILL SHOWING INCREASING...VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD
ENERGY FROM THE NW SWELL. THUS...DANGEROUSLY HIGH AND POTENTIALLY
DESTRUCTIVE SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED WITH WAVE RUNUP LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. IN THE SHORT TERM THE N WINDS
MAY BE LIMITING HEIGHTS A BIT...BUT OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST OF
30 TO 40 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL 50 FOOT SETS AT OUTER REEFS CONTINUES
TO LOOK GOOD. OBVIOUSLY THE HIGH SURF WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST COASTAL WATERS FOR
THE LARGE NW SWELL.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI
CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-KONA-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-
KOHALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI
CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD
WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
&&
$$
R BALLARD
