FXUS61 KGYX 261932
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
232 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT...BEFORE
CROSSING THE COAST OF MAINE SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. IT WILL CROSS OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...UP THE COAST FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA ABOVE THE SURFACE TONIGHT. INITIALLY...AIRMASS OVER
ME/NH IS VERY DRY HOWEVER. THIS WILL LEAD TO EVAP COOLING. IN
FACT...INITIALLY SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RELATIVELY LOW AS WELL.  

TO MAKE THE FORECAST MORE COMPLEX...A COASTAL FRONT HAS SET UP
ALONG THE SHORELINE COMMUNITIES. THIS IS ALLOWING A
COLD...DRAINAGE FLOW TO SET UP IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT PERIODS OF
SNOW TO CONTINUE NEAR AND ALONG THE COASTLINE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO THIS FEATURE. ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

QUESTION IS...WILL THE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST BE ABOVE
FREEZING WHEN THE MAIN BATCH OF SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION
REACHES WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER LONG ISLAND NEW YORK DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO EVENTUALLY GO ABOVE 32 DEG
F THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST AS THIS PRECIP ARRIVES. 

WE DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB MUCH BEFORE MIDNIGHT OVER
INTERIOR COUNTIES. THEREFORE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR A MIX
OF SNOW...SLEET...GOING TO FREEZING RAIN WILL BE HOISTED THIS
PACKAGE FOR INTERIOR ZONES. PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY GO TO RAIN OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE TOO WARM. COOLEST TEMPS OF THE MAV LOOKED
THE MOST REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR NORTH SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIQUID PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MIGRATES EASTWARD OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AGAIN...THIS FEATURE MAY GENERATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MERIDIONAL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.

FAST WEST TO EAST FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER
DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS. AS OF RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL BOTH MISS NEW ENGLAND. THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD SLIDE NORTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE
SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH
OF THE REGION.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION...TURNING THE FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHWEST. 

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS IFR OR LIFR
WHERE THEY HAVEN'T ALREADY. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY AFFECT SITES DURING THE DAYTIME THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED GALES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST
SCA...IF NOT GLW...THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST 
     SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-012-018>020.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST 
     SUNDAY FOR MEZ008-009-013-014-021-022.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST 
     SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>004-006.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST 
     SUNDAY FOR NHZ005-007>010-013.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$