FXUS64 KAMA 120526 AAC
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1126 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2009
.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...GENERALLY
REMAINING AROUND 10KTS. JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WIND SHEAR AT KAMA WHERE THE JET WILL BE THE STRONGEST AT AROUND
35KTS. THERE IS A MINOR CONCERN THAT THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS DOWNSTATE
BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS WILL PUT
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING LOW CIGS AT KAMA. HOWEVER...THIS CHANCE
LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE VEERING WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID MORNING...BECOMING QUITE
GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH KGUY SHOULD NOT SEE AS MUCH
WIND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE TROF. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE BY 00Z...REMAINING FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. ANY
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE AT 20KFT OR
HIGHER.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2009/
UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRAPHICAL FCSTS...LOWERING TEMPS AND
DWPTS BY A FEW DEGREES. DRY NATURE OF AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL WELL INTO TWENTIES AND UPPER TEENS TNGT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2009/
AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE.
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS...ALTHOUGH KAMA COULD
BRIEFLY GUST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. THIS JET WILL
BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND WILL RESULT IN WIND
SHEAR AT KAMA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
DOWN THE SURFACE BY MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS APPROACHING 20KTS BY MID AFTERNOON.
LIGHTER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH /KGUY/ DUE TO THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE LEE TROF. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE 20KFT.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2009/
DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS. NO POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. FOR TONIGHT...LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 12Z SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT WITH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE...ALONG WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. MAV/MET NUMBERS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PERIOD WITH LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD 50S AND A FEW LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY. FURTHER
WARMING ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AS THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS PICK UP EVEN MORE. TEMPS WILL CLIMB 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
PRIMARY FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR
MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. KEPT THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH PASSAGE EARLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS COULD SET UP QUITE
A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY...HAVE UPPER 30S
TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES WITH MIDDLE 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTH. 12Z EUROPEAN REMAINS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON BRINGING
A SHALLOW COLD AIR SURGE INTO THE AREA WHILE THE 12Z GFS KEEPS THE
BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF US. KEPT PREVIOUS
TRENDS OF FAVORING THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IN BRINGING SOME COLD AIR
DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS CORRESPONDS TO UNDERCUTTING CUTTING
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...AND THEN AREAWIDE BY SOME 5
TO 10 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
AROUND THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPS SHOULD GRADUAL WARM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...BUT DECIDED TO STILL UNDERCUT MEX NUMBERS ON WED AS
SOME COOLER AIR MAY BE RECIRCULATED BACK INTO THE AREA.
TAB
FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH ON SUNDAY...
BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 25
PERCENT.
TAB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
24/03
