FXUS62 KMFL 261839
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
139 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STALLED
ACROSS NORTHERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND TRAILS NORTHWARD
TO NEW ENGLAND TO A LOW WHICH IS ALSO CONNECTED BY ANOTHER FRONT TO
A LARGER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A LARGE UPPER LOW ALSO
REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET PROVIDING MID TO UPPER LVL MOISTURE TO FL AND THE
REST OF THE SE STATES. THE LOWS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
A WEAK SHORT WV MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SECONDARY FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH S FL EITHER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIM CHC OF A SHRA AS WINDS BECOME E AND
ALLOW FOR JUST SLIGHT INCREASE OF PWAT. MID TO UPPER LVLS WILL
REMAIN MOIST, HOWEVER, BUT THIS WILL RESULT IN MID TO HIGH LVL
CLOUD COVER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUES THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
SHIFT JUST ENOUGH NORTH WHILE A BIT OF RIDGE OCCURS LOCALLY TO
BREAK UP THE CIRRUS. AT THE SURFACE AND DURING TUES, A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS TO THE EAST AND MOVE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING WED. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS
TO A MORE EAST DIRECTION LOCALLY AND THEREFORE MODERATE THE TEMPS
AND MOISTURE... THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY ONE TO POTENTIALLY ONE
AND A HALF DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS - WHICH WILL OCCUR ON TUES ON
THE EAST COAST, AND TUES AND WED MORN ALONG THE WEST COAST AND LAKE
REGION. LATE NEXT WEEK ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF AND
MOVE NE TOWARD N FL. THIS WEAK LOW WILL PASS THROUGH N FL FRI AND
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH S FL LATER FRI WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
POSSIBLE DURING NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF VERY BRIEF 010-030 CEILINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITHIN
CURRENT CLOUD MASS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE FMY/APF AREA NE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST. BUT NOT ENOUGH
OF A CONCERN AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE FORECAST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY WITH
ANY WEAK LAND BREEZE THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP DESPITE THE CLOUDS.
THEN WE MAY SEE WINDS BEGINNING TO TURN MORE CONSISTENTLY FROM THE
NNE ON SUN LATE MRNG AND AFTN. /PS
&&
.MARINE...A FAIRLY LIGHT WIND PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, HOWEVER A BRIEF NORTHERLY WIND
SURGE WILL OCCUR BEHIND A FRONT THAT WILL LAST INTO TUES. SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KTS, BUT THIS WILL STILL ALLOW
SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM TO INCREASE INTO THE 4 TO 5 FT RANGE. THE
RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND SURGE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND GRADUALLY TURN
THE FLOW SE, BUT STILL WITH SPEEDS OF AROUND 15 KTS OR LESS.
GUIDANCE DOES PUSH SMALL SWELLS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF PALM
BEACH BEGINNING TODAY, HOWEVER CLOSER ANALYSIS REVEALS NO REAL
FETCH, DURATION, OR DIRECTION OF THE SWELLS OF ANY CONCERN TO OUR
COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY... HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EITHER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
SLOWLY FILTERING IN LATER ON MONDAY. THIS DRIER AIRMASS WILL
POTENTIALLY BE OVER S FL TUESDAY WITH MIN RHS DROPPING INTO THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS TUES AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 56 75 59 76 / - 10 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 61 76 64 78 / - 10 20 10
MIAMI 62 78 64 78 / - 10 20 10
NAPLES 54 74 59 72 / - 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...04/TINGLER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...52/SANTOS
