FXUS63 KMKX 261537 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
937 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES AND
WAUKESHA+WALWORTH UNTIL THE MID EVENING. MULTI-BAND LAKE EFFECT IN
PROGRESS WITH SSE FETCH TO AFFECT NORTHERN OZAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN.
BANDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME PRIMARY BAND NEAR SHEBOYGAN+MANITOWOC
COUNTY LINE BEFORE SHIFTING EAST BY THIS EVENING. WILL BE CLOSE
CALL ON WARNING CRITERIA THERE WITH ABOUT 6 INCHES. RUC13 HAS
ABOUT HALF AN INCH OF LIQUID...WHICH SEEMS OVERDONE BUT WOULD
EQUATE TO 10 INCHES WITH RATIOS AROUND 20:1.

WENT WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE GIVEN
GREEN BAY ALREADY HAS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAKE SHORE. BUT
MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG SHORE IN SHEBOYGAN THAN IN WESTERN PART
OF COUNTY.

SECOND PROBLEM IS IMPRESSIVE WEST-EAST BAND OF SYNOPTIC SNOWS THAT
SHOULD PIVOT TO NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION AS IT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. KRFD ALREADY HAD BRIEF S+ WITH 1 INCH OF
SNOW IN AN HOUR AND 1.8 INCHES IN 3 HOURS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
0.15 TO 0.20" OF LIQUID BY THIS EVENING WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 3
OR 4 INCHES OF SNOW. IMPRESSIVE SPEED CONVERGENCE SHOWN IN LOW
LEVELS WITH CHICAGO CRIB SOUTH AROUND 30 KNOTS WHILE WINDS JUST 5
TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FROM MILWAUKEE ON NORTH.

THANKS TO GRB AND LOT FOR GREAT COLLABORATION ON SHORT NOTICE.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
     060-065-066-070>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...CRAVEN/02
AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR/10