FXUS61 KILN 112315
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
615 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...
ALLOWING A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM ERN TN INTO THE
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. SOME H3 MOISTURE MIGHT TRY AND WORKING IN
OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW...BUT TYPICALLY ANY CI AT THAT LEVEL IS PRETTY
THIN...SO WENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN LAST NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...WITH A DAY OF MODIFICATION OF THE
AIR MASS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
H5 FLOW BACKS FROM W TO SW WITH APPROACH OF S/W ON SAT. THIS
COMBINED WITH SLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WILL
TEMPER THE WARM UP A LITTLE.
OVERALL PATTERN IS A LITTLE WARMER THIS RUN THAN YESTERDAY. IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN WILL FALL AS RAIN. MIN TEMPS
SAT NGT STILL EXPECTED TO BE EARLY...WITH RISING TEMPS AFTER THAT.
TEMPS ON THE LEADING EDGE WILL BE CLOSE TO 32...SO MIGHT SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ZR ON THE LEADING EDGE.
12Z MODELS ARE MUCH QUICKER WITH THE SYSTEM....SHUNTING IT E AND
TAKING PCPN E BY 18Z. H8 MOISTURE HANGS IN MOST OF THE DAY
HOWEVER. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN SUN NGT...CLEARING OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT COULD SEE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WORK BACK IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST WILL SHOW ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT AND INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE PATTERN BUT DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD FEEL FOR PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION SO STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF ANY RAINFALL LATE MON AND OVERNIGHT IS IN QUESTION.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE PLAINS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION THAT GETS
REINFORCED A BIT EACH DAY UNTIL THE HIGH SETTLES OVER OHIO ON THURS.
BROUGHT TEMPERATURES UP ABOUT 2 DEGREES ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE LOW...AND GENERALLY TOOK 1-2 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
OFF OF BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT THE AIR MASS TO
MODERATE BEGINNING THURSDAY AND SEE SOME WARMING LATE NEXT WEEK. A
SOUTHEAST TRACKING LOW IS BEING PROGGED TO ENTER THE GREAT LAKES AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST AND COULD RESULT IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP TO THE REGION...MORE SO IN THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
BY AFTERNOON MID CLOUDS WILL ALSO WORK INTO THE TAF SITES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD. DID ADD SOME VCSH AT THE END OF THE KCVG TAF. PRECIP COULD
START OUT AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. WITH THIS
FEATURE BEING AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND WITH MODELS TRENDING
WARMER DECIDED TO LEAVE FREEZING RAIN OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE WHETHER FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR. WINDS
WILL START OUT FROM THE SW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
WILL BECOME SE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...RAIN SPREADING INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COULD
POSSIBLY START AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK
