FXUS61 KILN 050155
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
855 PM EST FRI DEC 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE ILN CWA TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-71
LATER TONIGHT...LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP AT THE
SFC...SO WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME OVERCAST ACROSS THE EAST LATER TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THAT AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...AND ONLY CHANGES WERE TO FRESHEN UP SKY
COVER WORDING IN THE ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD UPR LVL TROF NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO GRADUALLY PIVOT NE
INTO EASTERN CANADA BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FLOW BECOMING
WESTERLY BY SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE OVER THE TN VLY ON SATURDAY TO PIVOT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY SAT EVENING. FOLLOWING SREF SOLN HAVE
CONTD DRY FCST...JUST ALLOWING FOR SOME CLOUDS. MID/HI LEVEL CLDS
WILL BE THICKEST ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF ILN/S FA DURING THE MORNING
WITH SOME CLEARING BEGINNING SAT AFTN. HAVE TRENDED SAT/S HIGH
TEMPS A LTL BELOW MAV GUID BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS AND EXPECTED CAA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. 8H WAA WILL BEGIN SAT NIGHT BUT
EXPECT DECOUPLING TO OCCUR WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP IN DRY
AIRMASS. THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED SAT NIGHT LOWS BELOW MAV NUMBERS.
ON SUNDAY THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING
A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. AFTER COLD START IT APPEARS THAT MAV
IS TOO QUICK WITH WARM UP SUNDAY. HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN MAV/MET NUMBERS.
FLOW BACKS AHD OF S/W MOVING INTO THE MID MS VLY AND HAVE
INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING IN A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BY MONDAY NIGHT AREA WILL DRY OUT HOWEVER ANOTHER STRONGER AND MORE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH ALL MODELS
TRENDING WARMER. ECMWF AND GEM HAVE LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
ILLINOIS WHILE THE GFS HAS IT MOVING THROUGH NW INDIANA. WITH THIS
WARMER SETUP RAIN WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WRAP AROUND AFTER THIS POINT AND MOST
LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE RAIN THAN SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME SNOWFALL AS MORE COLD
AIR FILTERS IN. DID NOT GET TOO FANCY WITH TEMPERATURE CURVES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SYSTEM STILL BEING SIX DAYS OUT AND TIMING SUBJECT TO
CHANGE. WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
PREVALENT BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CAUSE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SHORTLY. SEEING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF INDIANA WITH CIGS AROUND 2500-3500 FT. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...THESE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT ANY FURTHER EAST...SO KEPT LOW
CLOUDS COMPLETELY OUT OF TAFS. UPPER ENERGY PASSING TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST WILL SPREAD OCCASIONAL MID CLOUDS OVERHEAD
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND STEADILY SWING FROM NORTHERLY SATURDAY
MORNING TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HAWBLITZEL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAWBLITZEL
