FXUS61 KBGM 272045
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
345 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...TO
BRING A SHORT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. A FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE STEADIER SYNOPTIC-SCALE PRECIPITATION IS NOW JUST EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING STORM ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. IN THE MEANTIME...PLUMES OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS
ARE NOW COMING OFF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...IMPINGING ON OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. DURING THE EVENING...WE EXPECT MOST OF
THE LAKE-ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO AFFECT
ONONDAGA/MADISON/SOUTHERN ONEIDA/CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO
COUNTIES...AS A 300-310 FLOW PREVAILS. SOME LAKE HURON/ERIE ACTIVITY MAY
ALSO BRUSH STEUBEN COUNTY...BUT THIS SHOULD BE MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE. LAKE-EFFECT PARAMETERS LOOK BEST PRIOR TO 06Z...WITH A
DEEP MOIST LAYER AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. LATER
TONIGHT...THOUGH...THE INVERSION BASE IS PROGGED TO LOWER...WE
GRADUALLY LOSE THE DEEPER MOISTURE...AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY COME UP A DEGREE OR TWO. WE'LL STILL GO WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AS FOR THE WINDS...OUR ADVISORY WILL STAY IN TACT THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL...THIS SITUATION STILL APPEARS
MARGINAL...WITH LESS THAN IDEAL ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND A MIXED
LAYER THAT GETS SHALLOWER WITH TIME LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35-40 KT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST PA AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT MECHANICS SLOWLY BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL
RIDGING COMES IN FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...WILL BECOME LESS PREVALENT AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK QUIET...AS RIDGING CRESTS OVER THE
REGION AND LAKE MOISTURE GETS CUT OFF.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A FAST MOVING SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...THEN CROSS NY/PA. FROM
THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...IT WOULDN'T APPEAR THESE SYSTEMS WILL
HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY MILD AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...POINTING TO MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE PROGRESS
FORWARD IN TIME MONDAY...COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
ELICIT A LAKE RESPONSE...AND BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED BASED ON 00Z/27 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. INITIALLY MEAN UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH W/SW POST FRONTAL FLOW WILL
PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER NRN PTN OF
CWA. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR NRN CWA BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC AND WEAK SFC LOW UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY, SFC LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE TN VALLEY
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY
SEE MIXED PRECIP WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING THEN JUST RAIN ON
THURSDAY AS SYSTEM BRINGS PLENTY OF WARM AIR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM CAA WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE OVER NRN PTN OF CWA. CYCLONIC COLD FLOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH CHC POPS FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NW FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE SFC LAYER AS A CYCLONE DEEPENS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE MAINLY FROM ARND 28/3Z-12Z.
THE FLO ARND THIS DEEP CYCLONE WAS FAIRLY MOIST AND IT WILL PICK
UP ADDTNL MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. HENCE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS WILL REIGN OVR C NY TAF SITES FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THRU
THE FCST PD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW
SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS AT KRME...KBGM...AND KITH IN SHSN THIS
EVENING. KAVP WILL BE MAINLY VFR THRU THE FCST PD WITH OCNL MVFR CIG NEXT
FEW HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPT
KBGM...AND KRME AFTER 12Z ON THE 28TH.
OUTLOOK...
SAT PM...VFR/MVFR IN SC LAYER.
SAT NGT TO SUN...VFR.
SUN NGT TO TUE NGT...MVFR/VFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
WED...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPDATE TO THE STATS PUT OUT ON TUESDAY.
THE RECORD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF CALENDAR DAYS WITH LESS THAN
ONE INCH COULD BE TIED TODAY AND BROKEN TOMORROW FOR SYRACUSE.
THE SYRACUSE AREA HAS NOT HAD AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY
CALENDAR DAY SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH. THE WHOLE MONTH OF MARCH HAD
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WHICH SET A RECORD. THIS DATA WAS
ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA FROM THE SYRACUSE
AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY FOR SYRACUSE.
YEARDAYS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
1) 1946 276 DAYS FEB 28TH TO NOV 30TH
2) 2009 275 DAYSFEB 25TH TO NOV 26TH SO FAR
3) 1998274 DAYSMAR 23RD TO DEC 21ST
4) 1978265 DAYSMAR 7TH TO NOV 26TH
5) 1941263 DAYSMAR 22ND TO DEC 9TH
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJN
CLIMATE...
