FXUS61 KILN 261140
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
640 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TROUGH TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY.  DRY SLOT WILL WORK THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL BACK IN.
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH GREATER FORCING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND
COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES ONLY TO BE
IN THE 40S TODAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY
RAIN FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. COLDER AIR USHERING
INTO THE FA WILL ALLOW RAIN TO BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR
PART OF THE TIME...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.
BY FRIDAY MORNING LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIP WILL HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO LIGHT SNOW. PRECIP QUICKLY EXISTS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. AS IT DOES CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO WORK
INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY LATE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. PREFER TO DISREGARD THE 12Z
ECMWF WHICH SHOWS STRONGER UPPER ENERGY AND RESULTING CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THINK A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS MORE
REASONABLE WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE GFS ENS MEMBERS. SIDED
CLOSE TO THE GFS ENS MEAN SOLUTION...WHICH BRINGS FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IF THE SYSTEM STAYS PROGRESSIVE AS
EXPECTED...THIS WOULD ONLY BE A FEW FLAKES. 12Z GFS SHOWS DOUBLE-
BARREL LOW CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY MID NEXT
WEEK...BUT THINK THIS IS OVER DONE AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
PRIMARILY A VFR CEILING. CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AREA WIDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 22KT.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. BUT
EXPECT THEM TO BE LIGHT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY. AFTER
00Z COLDER AIR FILTER IN WILL CAUSE RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS. WENT WITH A CONSERVATIVE MVFR VISIBILITY ALTHOUGH IT COULD
GO IFR FOR A WHILE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL
ALSO LIKELY DROP BELOW 2000 FT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER TO
FLURRIES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE MVFR CEILING BEING
MAINTAINED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MVFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...