FXUS61 KILN 160616
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
116 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE UNDERCUTS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEARING IS TAKING A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE UPDATED TO PUSH BACK CLEARING A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. A
FEW SPOTTY SNOW FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT. WITH THEM BEING SO ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED THOUGH...WILL
JUST HANDLE THEM WITH A NOWCAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL A MID
LEVEL DECK STREAMS IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS 6-10KFT DECK WILL
HOLD NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM DROPPING INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY MORNING.
UNTIL THIS OCCURS...THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND PERMITS A
COOL BUT SUNNY DAYTIME FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. THE HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY OVER US TOMORROW
NIGHT...KEEPING ANOTHER NIGHT OF TEENS IN THE OFFING WITH LIGHT
WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FOR THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND. TRENDED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE 00Z GEM/00Z ECMWF...SIMILAR TO HPC. EVOLUTION OF SMALLER-SCALE
SHORTWAVES WITHIN LARGE MEAN NOAM TROUGH IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. 00Z
GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE
EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE SOLNS WOULD
SUGGEST A POSSIBLE LIGHT-ACCUMULATING SNOW ON SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...GFS AND 12Z GEM ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND KEEP
BULK OF ENERGY FOCUSED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST CONUS. THEREFORE KEPT
POPS LIMITED TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND MEAN EASTERN NOAM TROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NONE OF THESE POSE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THREAT...BUT KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED SINCE THIS
PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST OFF AND ON LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALSO KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW AVG.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP AND EXPECT ALL CLOUDS TO CLEAR TAF SITES
WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...AR
