FXUS64 KAMA 090235 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
835 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

.UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. WINDS ARE STAYING UP IN THE 20 MILE AN HOUR RANGE AND
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/ 

AVIATION...
0000 UTC TAFS...THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS EVENING WHILE ITS SFC REFLECTION LOW WAS OVER EASTERN AR. AS
THIS LOW CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST...EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. HAVE SEEN WINDS ALREADY
BEGIN TO DIMINISH SO THINKING THAT WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO AROUND 10
KTS BY 06-07Z. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT KEEPING SKIES SKC. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SWING
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING IN AN INCREASE OF CI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CLK

UPDATE...
HAVE MOVED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY UP TO 6 PM UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WIND CHILL READINGS ARE ALREADY IN THE ZERO TO -4 DEGREE
RANGE IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WE MAY
NEED TO UPGRADE THE ADVISORY TO A WIND CHILL WARNING LATER IF THE
WINDS DO NOT DIMINISH QUICKLY ENOUGH. WE MAY ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER
BRINGING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. WE
WILL LET THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 PM
AS WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND NO OTHER PRECIP IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. COLD FRONT IS RUNNING AN HOUR OR SO
AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND IS ALREADY THROUGH DALHART GRUVER AND OTHER
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT THE FRONT IS HELPING TO KNOCK WINDS DOWN BY 10 OR 15
KNOTS. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS ARE STILL SCREAMING IN
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS IN THE
60 TO 70+ MPH RANGE BUT FORTUNATELY ONLY LIMITED DAMAGE. BLOWING DUST
IS ALSO AN ONGOING ISSUE...BUT RECENT OBS ARE TRYING TO SHOW A
DECREASING TREND IN WIND SPEEDS SO THINKING ANY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VIS WILL NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE. NEXT ISSUE IS THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS. DEW POINTS NORTH OF THE FRONT RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...AND THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR NEGATIVE DEW POINTS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY LINGER
ABOVE 10 MPH FOR A WHILE WHICH IS LIGHT ENOUGH TO PROVIDE FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...AND
ALSO ALLOW FOR WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL BELOW -5 DEGREES. THUS...THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL TO AROUND -15
DEGREES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF CIMARRON COUNTY...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THE CONDITIONS OCCURRING FOR 3 HOURS TO JUSTIFY A WARNING.

AFTER TONIGHT...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALTHOUGH WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS BEING HELD UP OVER THE NORTHERN US OR
CANADA. SO ANTICIPATE A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS WITH MORNING
LOWS STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. APPEARS THE
LOW TEMPS WILL THEN GENERALLY DROP INTO THE 20S EACH NIGHT UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK WHEN ANOTHER COLD SURGE IS EXPECTED. MODELS STILL
INCONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR
THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME...SO LEFT POPS OUT BUT DID LOWER
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS AREA WIDE.

JJB

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN PLACE TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG WEST
WINDS. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 7
PM. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE
WITHING AN HOUR OR SO AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. AFTER TODAY...NOT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...
     MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

OK...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

$$

05/15