FXUS64 KLZK 101117
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
517 AM CST THU DEC 10 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE AREA. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST THU DEC 10 2009/
SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE....CENTERED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE STATE DURING THE DAY. THE
HIGH IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM MODELS ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MODELS AGREE IN DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST IN
THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND MOVING THE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
ECMWF MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND BARELY
GRAZES SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WHILE THE NAM BRINGS PRECIPITATION MUCH
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN. WILL NEED TO EXPAND THE
PRECIPITATION AREA FURTHER NORTH AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH BUT
REGARDLESS...MODEL SOUNDINGS/BUFKIT KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION IN
LIQUID FORM.
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TODAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN SPITE OF FULL SUN. HIGH WILL BE WELL TO
THE EAST BY LATE FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXPAND TO
THE NORTH EARLY SATURDAY. BASED ON THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE
FEATURE...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH
DECREASING CHANCES TO THE NORTH BUT OVERALL...EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKER.
SYSTEM PULLS OUT QUICKLY AND ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MOST OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE SOME WARMING IS SEEN ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN. OVERALL MAV/MEX TRENDS/NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE
GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF ON MONDAY...AND LOOKS
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STATE. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS MONDAY...TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO
START THE PERIOD...COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE LONG
TERM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 37 20 43 28 / 0 0 10 10
CAMDEN AR 43 27 48 33 / 0 0 10 40
HARRISON AR 34 18 42 28 / 0 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 41 25 46 31 / 0 0 10 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 41 24 46 31 / 0 0 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 43 27 48 33 / 0 0 10 40
MOUNT IDA AR 40 25 46 31 / 0 0 10 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 34 18 42 27 / 0 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 38 21 43 28 / 0 0 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 42 26 47 32 / 0 0 10 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 38 22 44 29 / 0 0 10 20
SEARCY AR 40 22 45 29 / 0 0 10 20
STUTTGART AR 41 24 46 31 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...60
