FXUS64 KLZK 231720
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1120 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009
.AVIATION...
IFR TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS...DUE TO BOTH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY...WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND GUSTY AT TIMES. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DETERIORATING AS RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. BY 18-21Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
PREVAILING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR...WITH LOW IFR POSSIBLE
WITHIN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE A
PROBLEM...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. TAFS ALREADY OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LARGE UPPER TROUGH INTENSIFYING IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS
MORNING...WITH A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA. THE RAIN WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING...AS THE SYSTEM GETS RAMPED UP IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERN. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOTS OF WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH OKLAHOMA. AGAIN...WIND SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR. MAIN
CONCERN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
MODELS ARE SHOWING MOVING MORE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING THE COLDER AIR
INTO THE STATE QUICKER...AND WITH MORE MOISTURE. HAVE INTRODUCED A
RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS THE AREA FROM LITTLE ROCK NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH. WHILE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS...AREAS
NEAR THE BORDER MAY GET A FEW TENTHS. THE LITTLE ROCK AREA MAY SEE
FLURRIES IN THE AREA...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND THE CITY MAY
SEE A DUSTING ON THE GRASS...BUT IT WILL NOT BE A TRUE WHITE
CHRISTMAS.
THE OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND THE
STRONG WINDS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED...WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA RECEIVING 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES. WITH THE
VEGETATION DORMANT...RAINFALL WILL NOT BE ABSORBED READILY.
DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. FOR NOW...HAVE ISSUED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...AND WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO UPGRADE IN SOME
LOCATIONS TO A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
THE LARGE SYSTEM WILL MOVE BEGIN LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...MAY SEE MORE
MOISTURE MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ALL
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE STATE...AND CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS
ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...BUT POPS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. UPPER
FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GULF. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY...WITH ISENTROPIC UPLIFT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AT
THIS POINT...LOOKS AS THOUGH AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIP. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 58 51 53 32 / 90 100 100 40
CAMDEN AR 64 54 55 33 / 90 90 90 20
HARRISON AR 59 49 49 25 / 100 100 90 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 52 53 31 / 90 100 90 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 62 53 54 32 / 90 100 100 30
MONTICELLO AR 63 55 58 34 / 100 90 100 30
MOUNT IDA AR 64 51 52 29 / 100 100 90 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 58 49 50 27 / 90 100 100 40
NEWPORT AR 58 51 54 33 / 90 100 100 40
PINE BLUFF AR 62 54 56 33 / 90 100 100 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 61 50 51 28 / 90 100 90 40
SEARCY AR 60 52 54 33 / 90 100 100 30
STUTTGART AR 61 53 55 33 / 90 100 100 30
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56
