FXUS64 KLZK 270939
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
339 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR CONTINUING ITO FILTER INTO THE
FA...WITH CALM WINDS AND DROPPING TEMPS VERIFYING THE FREEZE WARNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL ALLOW THE FREEZE
WARNING TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING...AND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
TODAY WOULD NOT EXPECT A REPEAT TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER WEST COAST...PRODUCING A CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL
DIP SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY EAST ACROSS THE CWA MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO INTERJECT OUT AHEAD OF IT...WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING
LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. DELAYED THE BEST CHC INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASING BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS
LOW...WITH BEST THUNDERSTORM CHC IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
LOWERED POPS IN THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. TEMPS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...FALLING ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE FROPA.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRES WL BE IN CONTROL ACRS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PD...
WITH A STALLED FNT IN THE GULF. MODELS CONT TO INDC A NEW UPR LOW WL
MOVE OUT OF THE SWRN STATES AND EVENTUALLY TRACK ACRS THE REGION
DURG THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS CONTS TO
INDC A MORE SLY TRACK WITH THE ASSOCD SFC LOW...KEEPING THE BULK OF
PRECIP TO THE SE OF AR. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SHOWS OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL ACRS THE FA STARTING LATE WED. OPTED TO STICK WITH A BLEND
OF THE MODELS AND KEEP POPS CONFINED TO MAINLY TUE NGT AND WED.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RMN A BLW NORMAL LVLS THRU THE PD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 60 40 65 47 / 0 0 10 30
CAMDEN AR 64 43 68 51 / 0 0 10 30
HARRISON AR 63 42 67 48 / 0 0 10 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 41 66 50 / 0 0 10 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 62 41 66 49 / 0 0 10 30
MONTICELLO AR 62 42 67 48 / 0 0 10 20
MOUNT IDA AR 64 40 66 51 / 0 0 10 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 62 41 67 47 / 0 0 10 30
NEWPORT AR 59 40 65 47 / 0 0 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 62 42 67 48 / 0 0 10 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 62 40 66 49 / 0 0 10 30
SEARCY AR 60 40 65 48 / 0 0 10 30
STUTTGART AR 60 41 66 48 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-
FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-YELL.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...61 / LONG TERM...44
