FXUS64 KFWD 281121
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
521 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...CIGS AND VIS DETERIORATING TONIGHT.
SAT LOOPS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE BETWEEN KABI AND KFTW
MOVING NORTHEAST AND PRODUCING SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDINESS. AREA
88D RADARS ALSO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES AND VIRGA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS. TAFS WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY (SCT035 IN THE AFTERNOON) WITH
BRISK SOUTH WINDS AROUND 16KT. DO NOT EXPECT GUSTS TO GO MUCH
HIGHER THAN 23 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...KACT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AROUND 03Z/9PM AS
MVFR STRATUS (OVC012) SPREADS NORTHWARD ON A LLJ OF 25-30KTS.
METROPLEX TAF SITES WILL FOLLOW SUIT AROUND 4Z TO 5Z. IFR CIGS
WILL OVERTAKE ALL SITES BY/BEFORE 09Z/3AM WITH VISIBILITIES
BECOMING IFR SHORTLY AFTERWARD. ONCE CONDITIONS TURN IFR...THEY
SHOULD LAST THROUGH 16Z/10AM WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING FIRST. 75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/
A PLEASANT BUT BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN REACH THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. MOISTURE
RETURN IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH THE HELP OF A 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET
AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S BY
TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY DIGGING DOWN
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THIS SYSTEM AND SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE DOWN THE PLAINS BRINGING DRASTIC
CHANGES TO NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL OCCUR ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA ON SUNDAY...THE
UPPER LEVEL FRONT /850-700 MB/ WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY WHEN
IT GETS A PUSH FROM A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF
THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL HELP BRING A VERY BRIEF END TO
THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT.
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY TRANSGRESSES THE REGION. THE TEMPERATURES
WITHIN THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE COLDEST WE
HAVE SEEN THIS SEASON AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY DOWN IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS
OVERHEAD...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS. WILL MENTION THIS
WORDING IN THE ZONES BUT DO NOT EXPECT MAJOR IMPACTS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND ANY SNOW WILL MELT AS IT REACHES THE
GROUND.
ANOTHER DRY SURFACE FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK CHILLY AND BELOW NORMAL.
FREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON A FEW NIGHTS THIS WEEK IN VARYING
LOCATIONS BUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 58 60 41 51 / 5 10 60 40 20
WACO, TX 70 60 65 46 48 / 10 10 60 80 40
PARIS, TX 68 55 62 41 53 / 5 10 60 50 10
DENTON, TX 72 56 59 37 52 / 5 10 50 30 10
MCKINNEY, TX 70 57 60 38 51 / 5 10 60 40 10
DALLAS, TX 72 59 61 42 51 / 5 10 60 40 20
TERRELL, TX 70 58 63 43 52 / 5 10 60 50 20
CORSICANA, TX 70 61 67 43 48 / 5 10 60 80 40
TEMPLE, TX 68 60 67 46 48 / 10 10 60 80 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
75/
