FXUS65 KABQ 092202
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
302 PM MST WED DEC 9 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. 12Z KABQ SOUNDING
MEASURED AROUND 100 KNOTS AT 500 MB...AS THE TAIL OF A POWERFUL 150
KNOT POLAR JET CORE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A
DRY WESTERLY 40-80 KNOT FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD
PROVIDING FOR A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS HIGH PEAKS AND PASSES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
SHOULD DIMINISH TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL MAXIMUM
AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THIS
PERIOD.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OR OPEN WAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO EARLY
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM FARMINGTON TO
GALLUP EARLY SATURDAY THEN EXTENDING EAST TO AROUND TIERRA AMARILLA
AND CHAMA MIDDAY SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A SECOND SLIGHTLY STRONGER OPEN WAVE OR DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
THE CWA AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH A PRECIPITATION FOCUS ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WEAK SYSTEM ALOFT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY OUT OF THE STATE AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT SKIRTS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA. DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL RESUME TUESDAY ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM ALONG THE POLAR JET
STREAM WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY EXITING EASTWARD THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM RATON
SOUTHWARD TO AROUND LAS VEGAS AND CLINES CORNERS. ADDITIONALLY...A
FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY MVFR CEILINGS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WEST SLOPES OF THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS INCLUDES
THE VICINITY OF KSAF...KSKX...KGUP...KGNT...K4SL...KE33 AND KFMN.
BORDERLINE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MELTED A LITTLE SNOW TODAY...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED SURFACE HUMIDITIES IN THESE AREAS
TONIGHT.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. HOWEVER...WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
AT TIMES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
ONE OF THOSE TIMES WILL BE TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO...SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS...WHERE WESTERLY 20 FOOT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE AS THE TAIL
END OF A POLAR JET STREAK LINGERS OVER THE AREA. COLD AIR WILL ALSO
LINGER AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS READINGS. A STRONGER WARMUP WILL
COMMENCE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RAPID ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA. BY SUNDAY HIGHS SHOULD PEAK FROM NEAR NORMAL IN THE
WEST TO AS MUCH AS 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST.
MODELS DEPICT THE PASSAGE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. PRECEDING SHORTWAVES AND GRADUALLY
MOISTENING TAP OF ELEVATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN...A STRONGER SURGE OF
MOISTURE WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
MOUNTAINS OF THE WEST AND NORTH AGAIN LOOK FAVORED FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO RECEIVE
THEIR FAIR SHARE OF MOISTURE. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD MAINLY BENEFIT
FROM RAIN SHOWERS...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A GUSTY PACIFIC FRONT ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE EAST.
44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 10 35 15 38 / 0 5 10 10
DULCE........................... -4 31 3 39 / 0 5 10 10
CUBA............................ 0 34 9 40 / 0 5 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 3 38 12 39 / 0 5 10 10
EL MORRO........................ 8 37 13 39 / 0 5 10 10
GRANTS.......................... 5 41 14 42 / 0 5 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 11 45 15 45 / 0 5 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 18 52 24 55 / 0 5 5 5
CHAMA........................... -9 29 -1 35 / 0 10 10 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 7 32 13 38 / 0 5 5 5
PECOS........................... 7 37 14 44 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... -11 27 -2 32 / 0 0 5 5
RED RIVER....................... -12 28 -2 30 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... -13 27 -2 34 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ -3 29 2 34 / 0 0 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 7 38 12 44 / 0 5 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 9 34 17 40 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 12 36 19 39 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 20 41 23 45 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 22 42 25 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 15 43 20 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 21 42 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 16 46 20 50 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 20 42 23 47 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 21 51 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 11 39 16 39 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 13 39 17 43 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 15 33 18 37 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 22 45 24 48 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 22 50 23 51 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 25 48 27 48 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... -1 32 11 40 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 2 34 9 38 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 12 36 16 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 8 34 19 41 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 14 36 19 44 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 17 44 21 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 21 49 23 54 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 15 43 21 50 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 20 47 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 21 48 23 52 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 20 51 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 27 56 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 27 59 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 28 54 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/44
